The New York Mets appear to be hitting their first significant hurdle in the 2025 MLB season.
Having lost their last five games, they are set to face the Diamondbacks Monday in what promises to be a challenging series, particularly with tough matches against the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers looming ahead.
On Monday night, Griffin Canning will look to build on his strong start to the season, with the Mets eager to turn things around.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks will start Lynn Nelson, stepping in for the injured Corbin Burns.
The Diamondbacks are slight favorites at -116 for this matchup.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Betting Preview
It’s interesting to note that the betting lines seem to favor the matchup for Canning, especially given the Mets’ performance, though the stats suggest the odds might be tougher than they look.
The offensive statistics for both teams are quite similar. Canning, while seen as the stronger pitcher for this game, may experience a regression based on his underlying stats.
Canning is boasting a 2.61 ERA this season, but his expected ERA is 3.93, with his expected FIP at 3.53. So, it might be fair to say his early success has come with a bit of luck.
On the other hand, while Nelson primarily serves as a reliever, his ERA stands at 5.82, which might not accurately reflect his performance since his expected FIP is remarkably lower at 2.52. He probably won’t go deep into this game.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
The Mets seem worn out after a doubleheader sweep by St. Louis on Sunday, adding another layer of difficulty to their already challenging schedule.
Given the current circumstances and this particular pitching matchup, it’s quite plausible that the odds are a bit miscalculated, suggesting the Diamondbacks could be a reasonable choice as favorites for Monday night.
Play: Diamondbacks – Over 120 (betMGM)
