Recent intelligence evaluations have indicated that some officials within the Venezuelan government have “facilitated” the unlawful movement of members from the Tren Aragua, a notorious criminal group in Venezuela.
However, there’s a concern that Venezuela’s environment might allow TDA operations to run unchecked. An April memo from the National Intelligence Council, which was released by ODNI, suggested that the Maduro administration likely hasn’t deliberately orchestrated the outflow of Venezuela’s criminal elements, which could create chaos in other countries.
This memo contradicts earlier FBI evaluations that pointed to a strong connection between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government and TDA activities within the U.S.
Sources within ODNI maintain that the bureau’s intelligence assessments are considered the most accurate, focusing on foreign intelligence alone, whereas previous evaluations lacked sufficient depth.
The Department of Homeland Security has tracked over 600 Venezuelan immigrants in the U.S. with illegal connections to TDAs since Joe Biden took office.
“From 2021 to 2024, the number of Venezuelan encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border has skyrocketed. Some members of TDAs may have been blending in with the Venezuelan immigrant community, leveraging human trafficking and immigration mitigation,” the intelligence assessment reported.
The Venezuelan government appears to offer refuge to the TDA, facilitating their operations that target the U.S.
In June 2024, two members of Tren Aragua faced charges in Texas related to the rape and murder of a 12-year-old girl, Joselyn Nungarei.
In August 2024, armed members of Tren de Aragua were captured on surveillance video forcefully taking over an apartment.
US law enforcement has linked members of the Maduro administration, including Home Minister Diosdado Cabello and former Minister Iris Barrera, to TDA activities by providing financial or material support, although verification of these claims remains unclear.
The relationship between the Maduro regime and TDA reflects a mix of cooperation and tension rather than a straightforward command structure.
It’s clear that the Maduro administration may be willing to tolerate the presence of TDAs and some officials might work with them for personal gain.
Moreover, the regime typically doesn’t intervene in the operations of these criminal organizations unless there’s a threat of destabilization or loss of control. Engagement with these groups might often seem more practical than confrontational.
Reports suggest that some mid-level Venezuelan officials may benefit directly from TDA’s illegal actions, with local military figures occasionally alerting armed groups about law enforcement efforts.
Since late January, border encounters have reportedly dropped by over 80%, marking some of the lowest levels seen in years.
“Maduro hasn’t implemented any substantial measures to reduce migration. He might actually find some advantage in it—he stays in power partly due to the opposition’s exodus, which also lightens economic strains on the remaining population and boosts remittances,” the assessment indicates.
Furthermore, the Maduro administration seems to embrace logistical, financial, and political challenges posed by the U.S., perceived as its main adversary.
The link between the TDA and the Maduro regime was critical in the Trump administration’s choice to utilize enemy alien laws to deport suspected TDA members.
“Whether TDA activities are carried out under the orders of Venezuelan authorities or merely as independent ventures is still a debated point,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked this week, emphasizing the gravity of these issues.
