The Washington Capitals aren’t in a full-blown crisis, but their season outlook is rather bleak. After a hefty 4-0 loss in Raleigh on Saturday, it became clear that the game plan they took into the series just isn’t working.
In the three matchups so far, Carolina has largely outplayed Washington. While the Capitals had a brief moment of success in Game 2, it feels more like a fluke than a turning point. With Game 4 set for Monday night, this presents the Capitals with a critical opportunity to regain momentum as they eye the 2024-25 regular season. Plus, there’s the emotional weight of wanting to win a championship for Alex Ovechkin before his expected retirement after the 2025-26 season.
Washington looks somewhat lost, but what’s the underlying issue?
Key Stats of the Series
Understanding why the Hurricanes so easily dominate the Capitals can be traced to three significant statistics.
- Shots: Carolina: 89, Washington: 56
- Puck Control (5v5 corsi for): Carolina: 67.9%, Washington: 33%
- Offensive Zone Time: Carolina: 69.1%, Washington: 30.9%
So, what does this all mean? Essentially, Carolina’s strategy appears to be functioning flawlessly. Under coach Rod Brind’Amour, they utilize a forechecking system that forces errors, compresses the ice, and allows them to control play. This is proving to be detrimental for the Capitals.
The Hurricanes are keen on firing shots, so shot disparities are less concerning for them. However, if you’re struggling to control the puck in the defensive zone and failing to maintain offensive presence, it really complicates things for Washington.
Keep that thought in your mind.
A Battle of Grit
One surprising aspect of this series is the physicality—or lack thereof. The Hurricanes boast a small forward lineup, averaging 6 feet and 188 pounds, compared to the Capitals’ line, which averages 6’4″ and 227 pounds. You’d think Washington would capitalize on their size, yet Carolina has shown incredible resilience here.
The question arises: Why isn’t Washington utilizing their physicality? It seems that Tom Wilson is the only one truly engaging in the battles, while the rest of the team plays smaller than their actual frames. This wasn’t as much of an issue against the more agile Canadians, but it’s tough to expect Washington to back down when facing the Hurricanes.
There’s almost a sense of resignation from Capitals coach Spencer Carberry. A particular concern is why Ovechkin remains scoreless in this series.
“Overall, I think Dylan Strom plays a big role in that, with his line alone,” said Carberry. “It’s a line that relies heavily on entries and creation from those entries, and you’re not going to get a lot of them, so that presents a challenge against Carolina’s gap control and their large defenders.”
The issue lies with Carberry needing to figure out how to create those entries. Yes, the Hurricanes have excellent puck control and long defenders, but that shouldn’t mean the Ovechkin/Strom/Protas line can’t push through.
Ovechkin’s Challenges
The most pressing concern is Carberry’s insistence on keeping Ovechkin on the top line, which isn’t delivering results. At this stage of his career, Ovechkin is only getting about 17 minutes of ice time per game—time that should be spent in high-pressure scoring situations.
He’s been in a consistent struggle with younger players like Seth Jarvis and Jackson Blake, who are either left unchecked against him or pressuring him fiercely.
Ovechkin leads the Capitals in goals this season, but much of his scoring has relied on setups from Strom and Protas. If the passing lanes aren’t open, he’s not getting good looks at the goal.
A strategic move for Carberry might be to shift Ovechkin down to the third line. This could provide him the chance to face the more athletic Jordan line in Carolina, leading to improved scoring opportunities.
While it may seem like a downgrade, this change could finally provide Ovechkin with clear shots at the net—something desperately needed in this series rather than simply banking on luck and hoping for improvement.
Must-Win Monday for Washington
At this point, down 2-1 in the series, there’s no room for error. If the Capitals hope to return to D.C. with a chance to level the series, they need to turn things around. Carberry acknowledges that playing in Carolina is a tough challenge, especially with the crowd’s intensity, which will only escalate if the Hurricanes have the chance to end the series at home in Game 6.
Now is the time to hit the panic button and make some decisive adjustments. Ovechkin needs to be in a position where he can excel, and Tom Wilson should be used more aggressively to challenge players like Seth Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov.
As it stands, it almost feels like the Capitals have given up, clinging to the same strategies and hoping things will magically improve, but there’s little sign of magic in their performance.
