Senate Takes on Home Settlement Package
On Thursday morning, there was a collective sigh of relief in Washington. After weeks of strain, members of the House of Representatives were finally able to catch up on some much-needed sleep. While passing the home settlement package was certainly a win, it’s important not to see this as the end of the road.
The bill is now headed to the Senate, where it will be dissected and possibly amended—though one shouldn’t expect it to come back unchanged.
The White House is aiming to finalize everything before the July 4 break, which seems a bit optimistic given the small changes that the House managed to implement initially.
All funding decisions must originate from the House, a fact that the Senate sometimes overlooks. So, think of the recent House vote as securing the beachhead; what follows will be a drawn-out push inland.
Everyone involved knows how draining the past few weeks have been and how fragile the agreements are. Yet, senators often forget how precarious this reality is. In contrast to their House counterparts, individual senators can exert considerable influence, and they’re not always team players.
This time, it seems they might try to wield their power a bit more. For instance, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) expressed strong concerns about Medicaid. However, some last-minute talks with the President seem to have calmed him down a bit.
Still, Hawley is known for digging his heels in. He’s mentioned that he feels the President has his back, but there’s a mix of expectations—some think he’ll go along, others are bracing for a showdown. He hinted to reporters that the House bill “will definitely change” when it gets to the Senate.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has his sights set on making changes to a part of the legislation that’s been sidelined so far. Although he won’t get everything he desires, he seems determined to push back against bureaucracy. It’s likely he’ll relish every moment of this contention.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) aims to revert federal spending to levels seen before the pandemic. While that may sound reasonable to many outside Washington, it raises eyebrows inside the Beltway. Johnson looks ready for a confrontation, especially against others like Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine).
The White House hopes that they can reach an agreement that’s widely recognized as a success, but I’m not seeing clear evidence of that yet.
On the other hand, there’s Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who’s notoriously hard to negotiate with. No one really anticipates him giving the green light easily, and he knows that his consistency has its own value.
It seems unlikely that any significant changes to tax policy will occur. House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has been working with Senate Treasury Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) to align their perspectives, though it’s unclear if others have been looped in.
So, the ultimate fight isn’t over. Over the next three weeks, the Senate will likely crush the current version of the bill. When it passes, the two chambers will convene to address discrepancies and craft a final version that addresses concerns from both sides.
The timeline is tight, and with previous agreements seeming flimsy, it may prove more difficult than it appears.
In April, when the Senate embarked on the budget process, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer made some commitments, but now it looks like there aren’t any significant cuts being swapped for what House members expected.
A former lawmaker and now adviser pointed out that the Senate essentially doesn’t take the House’s version as fact but changes it at every turn.
