Bitcoin Bulls Set Sights on $110,000 by May 30
- Bitcoin Bulls aim to push BTC above $110,000 by May 30, leveraging a sizable $4.8 billion in call options.
- Strong inflows into spot BTC ETFs and a lack of substantial bearish put positions provide a favorable edge for the Bulls as expiration dates approach.
With the expiration date for the largest monthly Bitcoin option in 2025 nearing, total exposures are climbing to $13.8 billion. This scenario presents an opportunity for Bulls to potentially price Bitcoin above the $110,000 mark, especially after being caught off guard by a recent 30-day rally that shot up by 25%.
The current open interest in Bitcoin put options stands at $6.5 billion, but a staggering 95% of these are positioned below $109,000. Consequently, if Bitcoin’s price hovers around its current levels, put options below $350 million are likely to remain pertinent as expiration approaches.
On the flip side, there’s an open interest of $3.8 billion in Bitcoin call options—all concentrated below $109,000. However, this imbalance doesn’t necessarily indicate a universal bullish sentiment; some traders might be selling these options to hedge against prices exceeding certain levels.
In the last couple of weeks, one noteworthy strategy on Delibit has been “short calls,” generally favored by those seeking fixed income as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above a particular threshold. The “bull call spread” strategy, meanwhile, helps mitigate downside risks while capping potential profits.
Strong Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs Reduce Price Drop Risks
If Bitcoin can maintain its position around $109,000, many bullish strategies could yield positive outcomes as the May option expiration date arrives. Still, bearish traders might try to sway the BTC futures market as the deadline draws near.
Currently, total public interest in Bitcoin futures is at $79 billion, signifying a robust demand for short selling. If Bitcoin surpasses $110,000, however, those short positions could backfire, creating a complicated scenario for bearish traders.
Between May 20 and May 22, a net influx of $1.9 billion into U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates a demand level positioned above $105,000. Ultimately, the primary hope for Bears hinges on a less favorable macroeconomic climate, which could heighten risk aversion and diminish Bitcoin’s appeal.
Scenarios for BTC Price Movements
According to current price patterns, here are four plausible scenarios that take into account open profit imbalances without delving into more complex strategies:
- Between $102K and $105K: $2.75 billion in calls versus $900 million in puts, resulting in a net support of $1.855 billion.
- Between $105K and $107K: Supports a $2.655 billion call against a $650 million put.
- Between $107K and $110K: Indicates support of $3.7 billion in calls versus $3.55 billion in puts.
- Between $110K and $114K: Enhances support for $4.8 billion in calls against just $120 million in puts.
The Bulls stand to maximize their profits if Bitcoin exceeds the $110,000 threshold. However, sustaining this bullish trend may hinge on the ongoing dynamics of a tariff war that has been a focal point in recent discussions.
This overview is meant for general informational purposes and should not be interpreted as legal or investment advice. The views expressed are solely those of the writer and may not reflect the opinions of any organization.
