Bitcoin inflows expected to hit $420 billion by 2026

May 24, 2025

Important Takeaways

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are currently outshining gold ETFs in terms of growth, with some estimates suggesting annual investments could hit $100 billion by 2027.
Publicly accessible businesses and nation-states are sitting on nearly 1.7 million BTCs, reflecting long-term confidence in this asset.
The Bitwise Project anticipates Bitcoin inflows will reach $120 billion by 2025 and could soar to $300 billion by 2026.

There’s a growing demand for Bitcoin from a wide array of investors, including financial funds, ETFs, and publicly traded companies linked to nation-states. As per Bitwise of Crypto Index Fund Management, these inflows into Bitcoin might touch $120 billion by late 2025, with another significant leap to $300 billion anticipated in 2026.

A recent Bitwise report discusses institutional interest in Bitcoin for 2025/2026, noting that Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net inflow of $36.2 billion in 2024. This is impressive, especially when compared to the early success of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). In fact, Bitcoin ETFs amassed $125 billion in managed assets within their first year—20 times faster than gold ETFs—hinting at a potential flow of $100 billion annually by 2027, which would significantly outstrip gold.

However, despite this rise, major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have set aside $35 billion in Bitcoin demand for 2024 due to risk-averse policies. These firms are looking for a multi-year track record, yet the growing legitimacy of Bitcoin ETFs may eventually unlock this capital.

Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity’s Global Macro highlights that Bitcoin trading above $100,000 suggests it could rival gold as a valuable asset. His analysis shows that the risk-adjusted returns for Bitcoin and gold are increasingly converging.

Related: Bitcoin price “Breather” as short-term traders realize substantial profits

Bull, bear, and base cases for BTC allocation

Besides ETFs and asset management firms, Bitcoin’s appeal as a reserve asset is growing among public, private, and sovereign entities. Currently, companies with Bitcoin holdings collectively own approximately 1,146,128 BTC, valued around $125 billion, which represents 5.8% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Sovereign nations collectively possess 529,705 BTC, worth $57.8 billion, with the U.S. leading at 207,189 BTC, followed by China with 194,000 BTC and the UK with 61,000 BTC.

Bitwise’s senior investment strategist Juan Leon, along with research lead Guillaume Girard and analyst Wilwens, have outlined different scenarios regarding future Bitcoin allocation.

In the “bear” scenario, nation-states may only shift 1% of their gold reserves. Some U.S. states could potentially designate 10% in Bitcoin, equating to $6.5 billion, while an asset management platform might allocate 0.1% ($6 billion). Public companies have contributed an additional $58.9 billion, totaling over $150 billion in inflows.

The “base” case presumes a 5% reallocation from nation-states, generating $161.7 billion (1,617,000 BTC or 7.7% of the supply). In this scenario, U.S. state adoption may rise to 30% ($19.6 billion), wealth platforms to 0.5% ($300 billion), and public companies would double their holdings to $117.8 billion. This aligns with Bitwise’s earlier forecasts of $120 billion by 2025 and $300 billion by 2026, focusing on 20.32% of Bitcoin supply.

In a “bull” scenario, a 10% gold to Bitcoin transition by nation-states could lead to an inflow of $323.4 billion (3,234,000 BTC or 15.38% of the supply). This model assumes U.S. state adoption increases to 70% ($45.8 billion), wealth platforms allocate 1% ($600 billion), and public companies quadruple their holdings to reach $235.6 billion. Overall, this could surpass $426.9 billion in inflows, absorbing 4,269,000 BTC.

The rapid adoption by institutional investors, along with governments’ recognition of Bitcoin’s potential, boosts confidence in its long-term value. As of May 2025, 94.6% of Bitcoin’s total supply has already been mined (19,868,987 BTC), further underscoring its status as an inflation hedge and an alternative to fiat currency weaknesses.

This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All trading and investment decisions carry risk; readers should conduct their own research before making choices.