- EUR/USD is expected to hover around 1.1440 as traders await the May US non-farm payroll data.
- The US dollar has found some support due to easing trade tensions between the US and China.
- On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points.
The EUR/USD pair is likely to remain within a narrow range near 1.1440 during the Asian trading session on Friday. Many traders are consolidating their positions as they look forward to the upcoming US non-farm payroll (NFP) data, which is scheduled for release in May at 12:30 PM.
Traders are particularly focused on US employment figures because they significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Current predictions suggest the US economy added 130,000 new jobs, a decrease from 171,000 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
Before the employment data is released, the US dollar has shown mixed movement following a recovery in the latter half of the week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is edging closer to 98.80.
On Thursday, comments from US President Donald Trump boosted the dollar. He mentioned that a recent call led to a fruitful agreement between the US and China. A stable trading relationship with China, a major exporter to the US, is generally regarded as positive for the dollar.
On the other hand, the euro appears to be underperforming overall. Insights from ECB officials indicate that the period of economic expansion might be winding down for the time being. ECB policymaker and Estonia’s central bank governor, Madis Muller, expressed satisfaction with President Christine Lagarde’s comments made during the initial trading hours in Europe.
Today’s Euro Price
The table below highlights the euro’s performance against various currencies today, showing it as particularly weak against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.30% | -0.08% | 0.17% | -0.12% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | -0.05% | 0.16% | -0.18% | 0.00% | -0.22% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.05% | 0.21% | -0.12% | 0.06% | -0.16% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.32% | -0.02% | -0.30% | -0.20% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.12% | 0.32% | 0.24% | -0.04% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | -0.17% | -0.00% | -0.06% | 0.02% | -0.24% | -0.22% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.12% | 0.22% | 0.16% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.22% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.06% | -0.11% | 0.20% | -0.22% | -0.08% | -0.28% |
The heatmap illustrates the percentage changes in major currencies. The base currency is indicated in the left column, while estimated currencies are across the top. For instance, selecting Euro from the left and moving right to US Dollars will show the rate of change in that box, which represents EUR/USD.
Comments from Christine Lagarde came during a press conference following the ECB’s decision to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points. This marks the eighth reduction since the current economic expansion began in June of last year.
Economic Indicators
Non-farm Salaries
The non-farm payroll report shows how many new jobs were created in the US the previous month, excluding farm-related employment. This report is provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is often subject to significant revisions. As such, it tends to cause fluctuations in the Forex market. Generally, higher numbers indicate strength for the US dollar, while lower figures can be bearish. However, the context of previous month revisions and unemployment rates is also crucial for a complete understanding of the data. Therefore, market reactions depend on how investors interpret the overall BLS report.
