A new variant of COVID-19 is emerging around the world, and experts in infectious diseases caution against underestimating it.
On May 23, the World Health Organization identified NB.1.8.1 as a “variant under monitoring,” based on a risk evaluation of this strain.
As of May 18, at least 518 cases of NB.1.8.1 have been reported across 22 countries to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data.
This variant, part of the Omicron lineage, has shown up in countries including Canada, China, Germany, Singapore, and the United States. Reports indicate that at least 10 states, such as California, Hawaii, and New York, have documented cases.
Currently, no cases have been recorded in New Jersey.
A spokesperson for the CDC acknowledged the emergence of NB.1.8.1 cases in China and indicated that they are in regular contact with global partners.
The spokesperson also mentioned that there haven’t been enough instances in the U.S. to justify including this variant in the COVID Data Tracker dashboard at this point.
“We keep an eye on all SARS-CoV-2 sequences, and should its prevalence increase, it will be reflected on the Data Tracker,” the spokesperson noted.
While the global health risk associated with NB.1.8.1 is regarded as low, experts warn that it could spread swiftly. Here’s a brief overview of what you should know.
Why is there yet another new strain?
According to experts, it’s typical for viruses like COVID-19, HIV, and influenza to undergo mutations over time.
Dr. Perry Halkitis, an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean at the Rutgers School of Public Health, explained, “These mutations can lead to new virus variants, which might differ significantly from earlier strains. This is a basic principle in virology.”
He added, “As long as the virus remains in circulation, we will continue to see new variants.”
How quickly will it spread?
According to the WHO, NB.1.8.1 is spreading more quickly than some other variants.
Although it’s currently more common in certain countries than in the U.S., this could change rapidly, said Dr. Edward Liu, chief of infectious diseases at Hackensack Meridian Jersey Shore University Medical Center.
“This virus has always been international in nature,” Liu noted. “There were early transmitters on airplanes during the first wave. So, air travel means international issues are still something we need to keep an eye on.”
Is this variant more dangerous than others?
So far, clinical surveillance data shows no signs that NB.1.8.1 is more severe than previously circulating variants, according to the WHO.
Currently, there is no indication of increased ICU admissions or mortality rates associated with hospitalizations. Yet, public health experts warn that the virus could still pose risks, particularly to the immunocompromised or unvaccinated individuals.
“I think natural infection immunity is decreasing. If your last COVID infection was years ago, you probably don’t have much immunity. Many people haven’t been vaccinated in several years,” Liu cautioned.
Does the COVID-19 vaccine protect against new strains?
The WHO suggests that current COVID-19 vaccines should still be effective against symptomatic and severe disease from this variant.
However, they also noted that NB.1.8.1 has mutations that might enhance its ability to spread.
“This variant stands out because vaccine-induced antibodies may not neutralize it as effectively as some other variants,” Liu explained.
Recently, the CDC modified its vaccine guidelines, no longer recommending vaccines for healthy children under 18 or for pregnant women.
Will it increase this summer?
It’s probably best not to worry too much about summer plans just yet.
According to Halkitis, “It’s unlikely that this variant will completely spoil the summer, since warmer weather encourages outdoor activities and better ventilation, both of which decrease transmission risk.”
He pointed out that the real concern would likely arise in the fall, as indoor gatherings in schools, offices, and other enclosed spaces increase.
“COVID-19 is still a very real and ongoing threat,” Halkitis emphasized, noting that vaccines remain the best defense against illness.
“Vaccines are effective and have improved our life expectancy and quality of life,” he added.
