According to estimates from the Wall Street Journal, the number of immigrants in the U.S. has dropped by 773,000 since President Trump took office in January 2025. In a similar vein, the Washington Post claims that the foreign-born worker population has decreased by a million.
Both publications express concern, suggesting this trend signals a weakening of the labor market. They note that average hourly wages have actually risen, reaching $36.24 in May—a 0.4% increase in just a month, with productivity gains outpacing inflation.
“In under five months, President Trump has shifted the trajectory that was set during Joe Biden’s presidency,” stated John Binder from Breitbart. He pointed out that, under Biden, newly created jobs predominantly went to immigrants who had recently arrived.
In fact, during Biden’s administration, for every job obtained by an American, 7.3 went to immigrants—both legal and illegal.
So, what accounts for this drop and new trend? It’s puzzling, right? Why would roughly a million immigrants suddenly step back from working in the U.S.?
It’s hard to pinpoint a specific reason that might be prompting legal migrants to leave. After all, they are authorized to be here.
On the other hand, a significant number of those who have exited might be undocumented immigrants. Perhaps they’ve developed a sense of unease with a president enforcing immigration laws. Given that those without legal status often aren’t part of businesses that contribute to job competition, it’s plausible to think that fear of enforcement is playing a role.
If the apprehension is driving a million undocumented workers out, well, that could be seen as a positive development. If your situation is illegal, it makes sense to be wary of deportation risks. Some may still remain in the country but choose to stay hidden to avoid potential raids.
I wonder if many are grappling with feelings of uncertainty about returning to their home countries.
Trump seems to be using both incentives and deterrents to encourage undocumented individuals to reconsider their situations.
The incentives could include various options. For example, the CBP app, which was created during the Biden administration, has seemingly facilitated the departure of some undocumented individuals. This tool allows them to alert officials about their intentions to leave and even offers free flights home, plus an incentive of $1,000 upon arrival.
But then you have the enforcement aspects, which are likely more influential.
The ongoing anxiety about deportation looms large. Employers may feel pressured to adhere to the law to avoid penalties connected to hiring undocumented workers. Additionally, access to social services for undocumented individuals is being curtailed.
The more threatening the environment feels for undocumented immigrants, the harder it becomes for them to establish a life here, which might push them to leave voluntarily.
This seems to be the pattern.
Every deportation can cost around $17,000, while voluntary departures may only minimally impact taxpayers.
The stronger the pressures from the government—making it increasingly challenging to live and work in the U.S. illegally—the more self-reporting could be anticipated.
Regardless, it’s clear that the absence of a million immigrants in the workforce could be beneficial for American workers and overall wages. What the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post refer to as a weakening labor market may actually evolve into one that’s more favorable for existing workers, given the smaller pool of available labor.
