According to Saudi international relations expert Dr. Salem Aliyami, the Saudi news network Al Arabia reported on Wednesday that the kingdom’s key diplomatic focus is managing the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel to prevent wider destabilization in the Middle East.
Interestingly, Aliyami criticized Israel for what he described as a “blatant attack on sovereign states.” Yet, his examination didn’t show substantial anger towards Israel or a deep concern for Iran’s situation among Saudi officials. It seems Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are pushing for “de-escalation,” but no one appears particularly invested in saving Iranians from disaster.
This perspective might not have seemed unusual a decade ago when Saudi Arabia and Iran were engaged in bitter rivalry, possibly on the brink of becoming adversaries. However, things have altered somewhat after the China-mediated reconciliation earlier this year. The Chinese celebrated this as a significant diplomatic success, indicating Beijing’s growing influence in global diplomacy.
Currently, Saudi Arabia is observing Israel’s operations against Iranian forces with a sense of urgency that, oddly enough, recalls the scene from Willy Wonka where Augustus tumbles into the chocolate river. Aliyami’s remarks imply that Saudi Arabia is frustrated with Iran’s persistent claims about uranium amidst severe Israeli air assaults.
Bloomberg News reported that last Thursday, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Bin Fahan met with his Iranian counterpart in Norway, urging Iran to strike a swift nuclear deal with the Trump administration. Iran, however, opted to continue maneuvering in negotiations, leading to an Israeli bombing just two days later.
Arab nations were reportedly taken aback by how quickly and effectively Israel launched its strikes, as per Bloomberg. They had assumed that President Trump would restrain Israeli actions to ensure smoother nuclear talks.
Richard Weitz, from the Hudson Institute’s Center for Political and Military Analysis, remarked that Saudi Arabia greatly values “America’s status as a strategic partner.”
In a statement to Al-Arabiya, Weitz dismissed the notion that Saudi Arabia’s involvement is limited to current tensions between Iran and Israel. He noted that Riyadh hasn’t lost sight of the ongoing issues in Gaza, even as global attention shifts elsewhere. He pointed out a recent statement from Saudi Arabia at the United Nations in Geneva, where Ambassador Abdulmosen bin Hotayla condemned Israel’s violations and its continued expansion of settlements, disregarding international law and treaties.
Weitz suggests that US policies might soon necessitate Saudi intervention due to Riyadh’s significant regional influence. He highlighted past Saudi diplomatic achievements, from mediating conflicts in Sudan to easing tensions between India and Pakistan and facilitating talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia stands to gain considerably by maintaining its image as a neutral intermediary between Western interests and Middle Eastern powers, especially in times of conflict, which can lead to significant losses.
Financial Times reported on Thursday that Arab monarchies are eager to “steer clear of getting dragged into war,” particularly with the US involvement, especially since Iran appears poised to retaliate by targeting US bases in Gulf nations.
Much of the region is situated much closer to Iran than to Israel, giving Iran the capability to threaten Gulf states with short-range missile attacks. Additionally, Iran could jeopardize “oil and gas exports” by attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz.
While a slight increase in oil prices could be manageable, it would be detrimental if these nations lose their ability to export oil through the Persian Gulf or if global unrest from broader conflicts affects consumer confidence and diminishes energy demand.
A stark reminder for Gulf leaders remains the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in 2019. Iran reportedly provided Houthis with missiles and drones, likely instructing or facilitating that strike. Saudi Arabia has communicated that it will respond to any attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, either directly or through proxies like the Houthis.
While Gulf monarchs generally maintain positive relations with President Trump, they express concerns over his “unpredictability,” fearing the US might not fully commit to their defense should conflict arise.
Some analysts speculate that Iran won’t risk further isolation and backlash by instigating harm towards Gulf nations. However, Gulf countries are wary that US military actions could stoke tensions and put them in jeopardy of Iranian retaliation. Financial Times reported.
“The Gulf wants to focus on hotels, AI, and golf courses, wishing to resolve the Iranian issue quietly. Just a week ago, that was their priority. Now, they are more anxious, especially considering Trump’s involvement, which they see as a vulnerability for them.”
A Bloomberg report highlighted that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is actively monitoring the fallout from Iranian nuclear facilities, having reinstituted emergency management frameworks to track radiation levels from sites like the Iranian nuclear power plant in Bushehr.
Adding to the concern is the potential political and religious influence stemming from Iran’s theocratic decline, which unsettles several Sunni Gulf nations, particularly given the potential for discontent among the sizable Shia populations in those countries if a Shia “superpower” emerges due to Israeli actions.
The communication from Arab nations to Washington remains straightforward: they desire a stable and peaceful Middle East that prioritizes economic and business interests. Continued conflict between Israel and Iran threatens to unravel these aspirations.
