Iran’s Future Amidst Ongoing Turmoil
The Iranian regime is currently feeling the pressure from sustained Israeli military actions targeting its military and nuclear facilities. This has sparked increasing discussions about what lies ahead for the country.
Some experts are suggesting that the collapse of the Islamic Republic is becoming a more realistic possibility. Yet, they caution that whatever replaces it could lead to either a more liberated society or, conversely, deeper uncertainty.
Leza Pallavi, an exiled crown prince and well-known opposition figure, shared insights recently, claiming that sources inside Iran indicate the regime’s command structure is deteriorating quickly. He noted that it’s becoming clear to the international community that the Islamic Republic has reached a dead end.
“Revolution is too broad,” explained Behnam Taleblu from the Democracy Foundation. “It’s more about evolution and delegation. Improvements or setbacks can occur. When unexpected events happen in the Middle East, things often worsen.”
Interestingly, there’s mention of a potential negotiation opportunity for Trump regarding Iran within the next couple of weeks.
Taleblu expressed concerns that neither Iranian opposition groups nor Western governments have adequately prepared for a potential power collapse, largely avoiding discussions about a governmental change over the years. “We’re not ready for this,” he lamented.
Beni Sabti, an analyst at the Israeli National Security Institute, highlighted four potential scenarios emerging from the current situation.
“Currently, Iranians are feeling leaderless and disillusioned since the women’s protests,” Sabti stated. One possibility is a collapse from within, akin to what the Soviet Union experienced. High-ranking individuals within the Revolutionary Guards might choose to rebel against the regime.
He noted that Iranian military regulars could find themselves in a better position now, especially following the elimination of several Islamic Revolutionary Guard generals by Israel. “They understand the system and could manage to make changes internally,” he added. “While casualties would occur, it could unfold quietly without major upheaval.”
Taleblu believes that a regime change might indeed rise from internal forces, although he emphasized that Iran’s history of “attempted coups” complicates this. “Past enthusiasm often overshadowed capability, making a traditional military coup unlikely. Still, it could happen, but only with considerable political maneuvering.”
The second scenario presented by Sabti involves a popular uprising sparked by the release of political prisoners. “There are numerous political leaders imprisoned in Iran,” he noted. “If some are freed, they could mobilize support, even if it means still maintaining a cold peace with Israel.”
Taleblu pointed out that Iran has experienced significant shifts in societal attitudes in the last decade. “A substantial portion of the population—possibly 80%—disapproves of the current regime,” he remarked. Social movements since 2017, particularly around the “women, life, freedom” slogan, have highlighted political, economic, and environmental concerns.
The third scenario entails the return of an exiled leader. According to Sabti, there is a sense of nostalgia for the monarchy, suggesting that if civil unrest escalates, iconic figures might unite people and reinforce revolutionary sentiments.
Taleblu clarified that while someone like Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi could play a significant role, he should not solely define the future of Iran. “The future needs to be shaped by the people within Iran,” he stressed.
However, Sabti warned that the worst-case scenario might be the survival of the current regime. “That would be the least favorable outcome,” he said straightforwardly.
Taleblu concurred, adding that if the Islamic Republic endures, it might become more radical. “There’s a debate about whether it’ll resemble Turkey or Pakistan or could turn even more messianic,” he explained. “The older generation in the IRGC is corrupt, while the youth are more ideologically driven.”
A pressing issue revolves around the role of Iran’s non-Persian communities, which include ethnic groups like the Awazi, Baroque, Azeris, and Kurds. Aref Al-Kaabi, the head of the Ahwaz Executive, stated that without establishing trust among these groups and Persian opposition, meaningful change will remain elusive.
He indicated that recent widespread arrests in Ahwaz aimed to thwart mobilization efforts, predominantly impacting locals from various regions.
Al-Kaabi also voiced frustration concerning the Persian opposition in exile, stating that their unwillingness to collaborate with other communities is a crucial factor keeping the regime in power.
Taleblu cautioned against Western strategies that might further divide the country. “Uniting the Iranian people requires a shared vision, rather than talking about fragmentation,” he advised. “It’s crucial for both moral and strategic reasons.”
