Concerns Surround Iran’s Uranium Stockpile After Recent Attacks
In a statement on Monday, Vice President JD Vance expressed his belief that Iran’s substantial uranium reserves might be concealed beneath three nuclear sites that were bombed by the U.S. over the weekend. However, many officials and experts are apprehensive that the Iranian regime may have relocated some of its nuclear fuel just before the assault.
“The aim was to disrupt uranium production. I suspect that uranium is buried, but fundamentally, our objective was to halt enrichment and curb the capability to convert enriched fuel into nuclear weapons,” he noted.
While the uranium identified is below the 92% purity threshold considered weapon-grade, specialists warn that the material Iran currently possesses could still be diverted for harmful applications.
Earlier on the same day, Rafael Grossi, the Chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), cautioned that “at this moment, no one, including the IAEA, can fully assess the underground damage,” urging that the UN inspectors be granted access to what remains.
This situation has left even the most current information specialists speculating about the whereabouts of the material.
Crucial evidence has surfaced with open-source satellite images taken just before the attacks, revealing over 12 cargo-style trucks gathered outside the Fordow facility.
Grossi mentioned that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakich signaled on June 13 that Tehran would undertake “special measures” to secure its nuclear gear and materials.
Anika Ganzeveld, who leads the Iranian team at the Critical Threat Project at the American Enterprise Institute, commented, “We have indications. The Iranians assert they have relocated this material.”
She added, “This could suggest Iran is attempting to move its assets ahead of a likely strike, particularly at Fordow, based on the events that followed the onset of the Israeli air campaign.”
Jeffrey Lewis from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies pointed out, “This uranium could be easily transported via Iranian trucks and trains. It’s typically produced in one place, then sent to concentrated plants, and finally moved to other locations for further processing.”
Even if Vance’s assertion about uranium being buried holds true, it doesn’t assuage the concerns raised by experts.
According to Ganzeveld, should any uranium still exist, it might have endured the attack long enough to await the escalating conflict in the region.
“The worry is that there might be an agreement in place preventing Iran from enriching uranium on its soil,” she remarked.
Another troubling possibility, according to Middle Eastern foreign policy analyst Harley Lipman, is that Iran could have entrusted its uranium to another adversary of the U.S. “It could be hidden again. Perhaps countries like Russia, China, and North Korea could assist Iran in restructuring its nuclear program,” he suggested during a conversation with a reporter.
There are even more alarming theories, such as the potential for nuclear materials being smuggled to terrorist organizations for use in dirty bombs.
Nonetheless, nuclear expert Steve Nelson dismissed the likelihood of Iranian uranium being used for such purposes. “Enriched uranium doesn’t make very effective dirty bombs,” he explained. “You could find something a million times more radioactive in a hospital. No exaggeration there.”
