Impact of US-Israel Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program

A former UN nuclear weapons inspector has assessed that the recent US-Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facility significantly undermines Iran’s centrifuge program.

David Albright, who currently leads the Institute for International Security of Science, shared with CNN that he evaluated satellite images and consulted with individuals familiar with Iran’s nuclear endeavors. He noted that these sources assessed the centrifuge program as being “destroyed.”

“It’s remarkable how severely this program has been impacted, and I believe some of the objectives have been achieved,” Albright remarked on Tuesday.

Regarding Iran’s uranium holdings, Albright pointed out that while the centrifuge program has suffered, there remains a “remaining” part of Iran’s nuclear efforts that is still intact. He specifically mentioned that the uranium stockpile enriched to 60%—which is nearing the 90% needed for nuclear weaponry—is a critical concern.

Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, indicated that he could not verify the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile, estimated at 400 kilograms (880 pounds). He speculated that Iran might have relocated its materials to a safer spot prior to the strike, highlighting that the nation has been upfront about taking measures to safeguard this critical material.

Even if Iran successfully conceals the enriched uranium, Albright stated that converting it to weapons-grade material “will not be an instantaneous process.” He noted that the US and Israeli airstrikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s capability to construct nuclear arms. Albright projected it could take “a good year or two” for Iran to resume efforts to build nuclear weapons should they choose to reorganize their program.

Furthermore, Albright outlined that the Iranian Fordow facility, which is located deep within the mountains, was specifically targeted in the strike with 12 “bunker buster” bombs designed to reach its fortified structures.

By examining satellite images in the aftermath of the attack and using designs of the facility, Albright noted that the US targeted some of the most vulnerable aspects of the site, including key ventilation shafts and centrifuges essential for operations.

He stressed that insider knowledge should provide clarity on the extent of the damage, but satellite imagery suggested that the Fordow plant has, in fact, been destroyed.