Zohran Mamdani currently leads former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City, with results to be decided through ranked-choice voting, as neither candidate secured a majority.
Scott Tranter, Director of Data Science at DDHQ, mentioned, “New York City will hold its first RCV vote on Tuesday, July 1st.”
“Mamdani is in a good position going into the RCV process,” Tranter added. “He not only has the lead in votes but also has support from Brad Lander, who finished third. When second-choice votes are counted, we expect Mamdani to gain a significant number of Lander’s backers.”
Mamdani, a democratic socialist endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders, had a surprisingly strong performance against Cuomo on election night. While Cuomo had been leading most preliminary polls leading up to the election, he didn’t manage to secure a first-round win.
The competitive primary also includes established figures like Brad Lander, city council speaker Adrian Adams, and former Secretary Scott Stringer.
New York City accepts mail-in ballots that are postmarked by primary day, but these results likely won’t be available until July 1st due to the ranked-choice voting system. This system works by eliminating the candidate with the least votes if no one achieves a majority, redistributing votes based on voters’ next preferences until a winner emerges.
The primary will take several rounds before a victor is determined.
Cuomo entered the race in March, trying to make a comeback after resigning in 2021 amidst multiple sexual harassment allegations and accusations of mismanaging nursing home deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. He defends his actions by citing federal guidance.
Despite facing significant controversies and a sizable number of voters doubting his viability, he has remained ahead in polls for months leading up to the primary.
Meanwhile, Mamdani has actively sought to unite younger, progressive voters against Cuomo, successfully narrowing the voting gap in the weeks before the primary and gaining traction in a recent independent poll.
The Democratic nominee will face off against Mayor Eric Adams, alongside GOP nominee Curtis Swawa and independent Jim Walden, who seeks re-election.
Interestingly, regardless of the primary outcome, there may be another showdown between Cuomo and Mamdani. Cuomo has established a separate political party called the Battle and Delivery Party, aiming to participate in general elections outside of the Democratic framework. Conversely, the Progressive Working Family Party is considering backing another candidate for the general election if Cuomo secures the Democratic nomination, though it remains unspecified who that candidate might be. Nevertheless, Mamdani would make a strong case for himself.
