IAEA Chief on Uncertainty Surrounding Iran’s Enriched Uranium

On Tuesday, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that his organization currently does not know the location of Iran’s enriched uranium, which might include up to 900 pounds of material suitable for weaponry.

Just days before the US targeted the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities, Grossi mentioned that Iran was in the process of constructing a large-scale enrichment plant in Isfahan. Although some of Iran’s existing uranium stocks might have been moved there, he emphasized the difficulty in confirming this without direct inspections.

“Right before Israel initiated its military actions at the Isfahan site, we had intended to conduct inspections,” Grossi noted last Thursday. “However, this was postponed as a result of the military operation.”

In a recent interview, Grossi also revealed that an inspector had observed a quantity of Iranian uranium small enough to fit in the trunks of ten vehicles, stored in drums at the Isfahan site, just before Israel began its strikes on Iran’s nuclear program last week.

During an interview with Fox News host Martha MacCallum, Grossi was pressed about his earlier remarks. “I must be very precise, Martha,” he responded. “As the IAEA, we’re not in the business of conjecture. We simply do not have information regarding the whereabouts of this material.”

Grossi outlined that Iranian officials communicated to him that their uranium stocks were secure, potentially shielded from further actions by Israel or the US by relocating them to different sites.

He asserted that the only way to accurately assess the status of Iran’s uranium supplies is to conduct inspections “as soon as possible.” He also echoed the sentiments of Vice President JD Vance, stating that if Iran’s centrifuge facilities are destroyed, their 60% enriched uranium would no longer pose an immediate threat as the country lacks the capability to escalate it to the 90% needed for weaponization.

“I can’t dispute that point because 60% isn’t 90%,” Grossi remarked. “My responsibility is to clarify the total amounts of uranium in Iran and other nations.”

The conversation surrounding the 60% enrichment level is significant, as it’s already much higher than what would be necessary for civilian purposes and is just a step away from weapons-grade material. Experts note that this final step can be accomplished fairly quickly due to the advanced centrifuges Iran has developed over the years; they have estimated that Iran could produce enough material for a bomb in just about two weeks.

There’s a belief among Israeli intelligence that should Iran’s centrifuges be eliminated, their pursuit of nuclear weapons would also see a decline.

The Israeli Nuclear Energy Commission commented, “The US strike on Fordow significantly damaged the facility and rendered it non-operational,” following the attacks. They acknowledged a decrease in Iran’s nuclear capabilities due to the coordinated strikes on its nuclear and military programs.

Speculation arose regarding 16 cargo trucks spotted at the Fordow facility before the US airstrike, but given the complexity and scale of Iran’s infrastructure, it’s unlikely any equipment has been moved or dismantled.

Grossi remarked that the Fordow centrifuges are “very vibration-sensitive,” suggesting that the US bomb could have inflicted substantial damage on the facility.

When hostilities commenced, Grossi noted that significant power sources at the Natanz Concentration Facility could have been compromised, potentially leading to uncontrollable situations resulting from power surges.

Grossi emphasized that irrespective of Iran’s interest in its 60% enriched uranium stockpile, there is an obligation under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to disclose the exact locations of this material and to permit IAEA inspections.

“Any transfer of nuclear materials from a secured site to a different location within Iran needs to be reported to the agency,” he stated.

Recently, the Iranian parliament has started drafting legislation to withdraw from the NPT following the Israeli airstrikes, and Congress has approved a bill to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA.