Be cautious about the seemingly benevolent Chinese proposals aimed at ending the devastating war in Ukraine. They might not be what they seem.
Back in February, Chinese officials proposed that Xi Jinping host a Peace Summit involving President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Team Trump wisely declined Xi’s role as a mediator, especially given the tightening military and economic ties between Moscow and Beijing.
In reality, Xi’s move seems like a deceptive strategy aimed at demanding Ukraine’s unconditional surrender—something that would also serve China’s interests—and perhaps simply to buy time for Putin as his forces struggle in a war of attrition.
Now, we begin to uncover China’s true motivations. Increasingly, Beijing perceives Russia’s invasion as a useful proxy conflict against the US.
Team Trump is keen to put an end to the ongoing bloodshed. Meanwhile, Xi’s current advisors appear focused on strategically draining US weapons and munitions while allowing Russian forces to recover after their underwhelming performance.
Initially, Beijing’s involvement in the conflict was indirect, mainly through affordable oil and gas imports and military technology. But Xi is now really showing his hand. Just last week in Brussels, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi indicated during a private discussion with Kaja Karas that, “Beijing cannot accept a Russian defeat in Ukraine, as it would allow the US to concentrate fully on China.”
Then, on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky provided evidence pointing to five Chinese firms supplying critical parts for Russian-made Iranian drones following a massive July 4 attack on Kyiv. Ukrainian security services are now investigating these connections.
In response, Ukraine has swiftly imposed sanctions on these five companies: Central Asia Silk Road International Trade, Suzhou ECOD Precision Manufacturing, Deep Shenzhen Royo Technology, Shenzhen Jinduobang Technology, and Ningbo Blin Machinery.
Despite formally adopting a neutral stance since the war began in February 2022, Xi appears to be aligning closely with Putin.
We’ve been warning about this growing alliance for some time, pointing out that Russia and China, along with partners like Iran and North Korea, are working against Washington and Brussels. This struggle is rapidly evolving into a more globally dynamic situation.
This isn’t just a conflict in the traditional sense—it’s a multifaceted war, gradually accumulating losses, rather than featuring a single explosive moment.
Indicators have been mounting; for instance, Putin’s use of troops from Chechnya marked an early sign, and now there’s intelligence about North Korean soldiers and even engineers from Laos getting involved. Beijing is heavily investing in Laos, supporting projects like the China-Space Economic Corridor.
NATO’s Executive Director Mark Latte connected these dots in a recent interview, indicating the likelihood of Xi coordinating with Putin should any aggressive action toward Taiwan arise.
In this light, it’s evident that for Putin, the conflict in Ukraine isn’t just about Ukrainian territory; it mirrors broader tensions, especially how outcomes in Ukraine might ripple back to Taiwan. A loss in Ukraine could empower Putin to turn those resources against NATO, while a win could severely deter Xi’s ambitions in other regions.
China is gearing up for this confrontation. According to John Noh, director of Defense for Trump’s security issues in India, China is developing “an extensive and advanced arsenal of nuclear, conventional, cyber, and space capabilities” to establish dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
Xi’s proxy strategy in Ukraine serves as the opening gambit in a broader confrontation. If the West aims for a successful Cold War outcome, defeating Putin in Ukraine has to be prioritized. The two conflicts are intertwined in ways that aren’t fully appreciated yet.
Trump’s administration’s response to Ukraine has made some progress, but there’s still much more to be done regarding the drone threats. Traditional missile systems may not be effective against the drone warfare that’s being employed, especially as Russia has significantly escalated its drone assaults.
Current stats indicate that Russia launched thousands of drones earlier this month alone. NATO has had to scramble jets in reaction to these escalations.
To effectively win, the US must adopt a more aggressive stance—targeting launch sites, preventing Russian reinforcements, and approving necessary military actions. No sanctuary should be granted to Russia, especially when combined with upcoming sanctions designed to inhibit their war efforts.
Having a solid air defense is crucial. Ukraine requires a comprehensive layered defense system, like the ones used by Israel, which have proven effective against missile threats in their recent conflicts.
Our European allies need to step up as well, starting by implementing effective strategies in western Ukraine and collaborating with regional defense initiatives.
It’s clear that China’s proxy war in Ukraine is only beginning. There’s a growing urgency for Team Trump to secure an all-in strategy as the national stakes rise.
