President Trump is pondering whether the Republican Party will back the Texas GOP Senate primary, which is closely watched as Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) faces off against Attorney General Ken Paxton.
This week, Trump met with Senate Majority Leader John Tune (D) and others from the Senate Leadership Fund to strategize about various Senate races, including Texas. Currently, Paxton has been leading Cornyn in opinion polls.
Thursday introduced a surprising twist when Paxton’s wife, Sen. Angela Paxton (R), filed for divorce. This comes amid allegations against the Attorney General regarding extramarital affairs and corruption involving the 2023 Munition Each Trial.
Trump’s endorsement could significantly influence Cornyn’s standing among key Republican voters.
“We’ve been putting in a lot of effort,” said Brendan Steinhauser, Cornyn’s former campaign manager. “It’s all about the fine details, which are really vital.”
Matt McCowiak, a senior adviser for Cornyn, referred to Trump as “the strongest supporter in modern Republican history.”
“Senator Cornyn and President Trump are strong allies. Senator Cornyn has consistently voted with Trump 99.2% of the time during his presidency,” McCowiak mentioned in a statement.
“We hold the president in high regard. We’re focused on making sound decisions and, as always, on running top-tier campaigns,” he added.
Cornyn recently faced challenges, having been caught in flooding while visiting Texas with Trump last Friday.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) accompanied them and has apparently been discussing his potential candidacy, being seen as a stronger option than Paxton for the general election.
This week, Cornyn’s supporters reacted strongly to the news of Angela Paxton’s divorce, which she cited as “Bible grounds.”
“It’s really disheartening that Ken Paxton has put his family through this,” said Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senators Committee (NRSC) backing Cornyn. “No one should endure what Angela is going through. We pray for her strength during this difficult time.”
In a statement, Paxton reflected on starting a new chapter in life after experiencing numerous political pressures. He expressed gratitude for his family and requested privacy as they navigate this situation.
It remains uncertain how Angela’s divorce will impact the increasingly contentious primary. Yet, prior polls indicate Paxton holds a lead over Cornyn.
A survey by Republican pollster Robert Blizzard last month showed Paxton with 50% of primary voters compared to Cornyn’s 28%. Cornyn’s campaign dismissed this as an inaccurate measurement, referring to it as an “irresponsible voting season.”
Conversely, another poll from Texas Southern University indicated Paxton leading Cornyn by 43% to 34%, with 23% undecided.
Additionally, a May internal poll from the Senate Leadership Fund suggested that Paxton was ahead by 16 points.
While Cornyn is gaining ground in some areas, he may have an edge with fundraising. He has been a prolific fundraiser, securing over $415 million during his Senate tenure and nearly $33 million for the upcoming elections. His recent quarter brought in $2.5 million, totaling $5.7 million, along with a $10.9 million haul from the conservative PAC.
Paxton has also managed to raise funds, claiming $2.9 million from April to June.
However, some insiders believe Trump’s backing might carry more influence than financial contributions.
“Support from Trump could reflect strongly in the polls,” suggested a Republican strategist.
Both Cornyn supporters and some Republicans raise concerns regarding Paxton’s prospects in the general election, casting doubts about his ability to secure a win.
In the Texas Southern University poll, Cornyn led former Rep. Colin Allred (D) by four points while Paxton was just ahead by two.
Moreover, another poll from the Senate Leadership Fund showed Cornyn with a six-point lead over Allred, with Hunt trailing behind by four and Paxton close by one point.
This situation raises concerns that Paxton’s potential vulnerabilities could cost Republicans essential resources as they aim to maintain Senate control.
“Having Trump’s backing would be timely,” Steinhauser noted. “It not only assists in fundraising but also connects with millions of Republican voters.” He added that primary voters have shown a strong preference for candidates endorsed by Trump.
Nonetheless, some doubt whether Trump’s endorsement will significantly affect Cornyn’s prospects.
Internal polling suggests that even with Trump’s support, Cornyn might lead Paxton by only a small margin, indicating that while Trump’s backing is influential, it may not transform the dynamics entirely.
“Cornyn’s challenge now is to establish credibility so that Trump doesn’t abandon him,” the strategist remarked.
