Page Bueckers entered the WNBA with high expectations, coming in as the Consensus No. 1 pick after winning a national title. Now, five months post-draft, it’s clear she’s not just meeting those expectations; she’s exceeding them, at least individually, though the team’s overall success has been lacking.
This season, Bueckers averaged a solid 19.1 points, along with 5.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. Her scoring average ranks as the seventh highest in WNBA history, and she’s the fifth highest rookie scorer this season.
Her true shooting percentage of 56% outshines many seasoned guards, including Sabrina Ionescu and Skylar Diggins. Still, she’s had her struggles with three-point shooting, hitting just 32.2% from beyond the arc, a notable drop from her impressive 42.3% average in college.
It’s uncommon for a rookie guard with such high visibility to shoulder a heavy offensive burden while still being efficient. Take Kelsey Plum, for instance, who, despite being the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer at draft time, averaged only 8.5 points while shooting 34.6% as a rookie. Sabrina Ionescu managed 11.7 points with a 37.9% shooting rate in her limited rookie season due to injury. Comparatively, Bueckers’ 19.1 points and 47.4% shooting are truly standout performances.
Last month, she made a mark by tying WNBA records for rookie players with an astonishing 44 points in a single game, shooting 17-21—no other rookie had taken more than 20 shots in a game before without missing fewer than four.
However, Bueckers isn’t the only impressive rookie this season. Let’s look at some other rising stars.
In most seasons, Sonia Citron would be the Rookie of the Year
Washington Mystics guard Sonia Citron, the third overall pick, has also surpassed expectations, averaging 15 points, 4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.2 steals this season. She’s notably the most efficient rookie guard in the WNBA with a remarkable true shooting percentage of 60.7%.
Citron’s three-point shooting has been exceptional too, with a 43.7% average. Her consistency has been impressive; she scored in double figures in 19 of her last 20 games, placing her firmly in the Rookie of the Year discussion. Just last week, she broke the record for the most points in a season by a Mystics player.
While Citron has had a phenomenal shooting season and showcased strong defense, I wouldn’t personally choose her as Rookie of the Year. That said, she’s certainly on track to become one of the WNBA’s rising stars.
Interestingly, Citron’s Mystics, with a record of 16-27, have had a better season than Bueckers’ Wings, who sit at a dismal 9-34. Still, it’s tough to gauge how much of that success can be attributed to Citron herself.
A considerable part of the Mystics’ success is tied to veteran guard Britney Sykes. Without her, they might have lost nine straight games.
Bueckers versus Citron
Citron’s efficiency certainly puts her into the Rookie of the Year conversation, especially as Bueckers occasionally seemed to be slipping from consideration.
Nonetheless, when it came time for me to cast my vote, Bueckers was the clear frontrunner.
Part of this distinction comes from the heavy lifting she has undertaken. Players from UConn, like Bueckers, have a usage rate of 24.9% this season, indicating that nearly a quarter of her team’s possessions involve her directly—through shooting or passing the ball.
Another edge for Bueckers lies in her playmaking abilities. She averages about 10 assists per game, holds the 11th highest assist percentage this season, and ranks 8th in assist ratios among players averaging at least two assists per game.
Some advanced stats attempt to quantify individual player impact, and Bueckers generally leads in those measurements.
Her player efficiency rating stands at 21.4, while Citron trails with a 16.5, which is above the league average. This rating reflects a player’s overall statistical contributions in a condensed format, factoring in both positive and negative actions.
Bueckers also has Citron beat in another advanced metric: the player impact estimate, which gauges a player’s overall contribution to game events. Her score of 14.2 places her 16th in the league, while Citron’s 11.9 is a respectable 38th.
Now, how useful are these statistics? That’s a subject of ongoing debate, but visual assessments of player performance often confirm Bueckers’ influence.
If the Mystics manage a strong finish to the season and secure a playoff spot, Citron’s case could become more compelling. For much of the season, the disparity in records between the Mystics and the Wings has helped bolster Citron’s candidacy.
However, the difference in team success isn’t so broad that it overshadows the significant role Bueckers has played for her squad. Most performance metrics underscore her impact, especially when compared to any other player.
