Leadership contests inside the parties are among Capitol Hill’s more absorbing rituals. House and Senate Democrats and Republicans are set to choose their leaders in the coming days, and the results could bring major changes.
Not everyone is enthusiastic about the presumed front-runners. Still, leadership races tend to follow two basic rules: You need an alternative candidate to beat the incumbent, and the vote count matters most.
Some progressive Democrats, including members-elect with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America, would prefer someone other than House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York. So far, though, no clear challenger has emerged. It is also difficult to imagine Democrats passing up the chance to elect the first Black speaker of the House.
Consider the numbers. If Democrats enter the new Congress with 260 House seats, they would first need a simple majority in their caucus to nominate a speaker. Jeffries would need 131 votes for that step, a threshold he seems likely to reach.
The speaker is the constitutional leader of the House. When the full chamber meets on Jan. 3, all 435 members vote for the position. Assuming every member casts a ballot, a candidate needs 218 votes to win. Jeffries could lose roughly 40 Democratic votes and still prevail, though he may lose only a few.
Republicans have a separate contest for minority leader, with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana facing Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio. If Democrats hold 260 seats, Republicans would have 175. Incoming Republican members, including nonvoting territorial delegates, can vote in their conference. Unlike the speaker’s race, the minority leader contest is not decided by the full House; a simple majority of Republicans, or 88 votes in this example, would be enough.
The same process applies to the race for minority whip, where House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota is facing Rep. August Pfluger of Texas.
In the Senate, party leadership is also chosen by a simple majority within each party’s caucus or conference. The Senate majority leader, unlike the House speaker, is not elected by the full chamber. The role is not established in the Constitution and dates only to the early 20th century.
After Democrats flipped the Senate, it would be surprising if Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York did not become majority leader. There is no obvious challenger. Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii is well regarded by Democrats, but he is seeking the majority whip position, which will open when Dick Durbin of Illinois retires. Schatz could become a fallback choice if Schumer’s position somehow changed.
Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan has said he is considering his options and has backed Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland for leader, though Van Hollen is not running. Sen.-elect Annie Andrews of South Carolina has called for a “generational change.” Sen.-elects Troy Jackson of Maine and Adam Hamilton of Kansas have both said they would oppose Schumer. Still, without a candidate to rally around, replacing him could be difficult.
Suppose Democrats win Mississippi and Alaska, giving them 56 senators who caucus with the party. Schumer would need support from just 29 Democrats to secure the leadership post.
There has been less speculation about Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota. President Trump has not, so far, called for a change in Senate Republican leadership. Republicans will choose Thune or another candidate by secret ballot in their conference. If the party falls to 44 seats, 23 votes would be enough to win.
