Premier League fans tend to think that a player who can score 20 or more goals is the qualification for winning the title.
So if you’re trying to pick the league’s top scorer, it would probably make sense to pick a player from the best team in the country.
However, this strategy has not always been successful, with the league’s top scorer also winning the cup 11 times in 32 seasons (34%).
Manchester City’s Erling Haaland may be the exception, having won a Premier League title and consecutive Golden Boot awards.
The Cityzens are once again favourites to win the league with odds as low as -105, but Haaland is even more likely to be top scorer (-150).
Obviously there’s no denying Haaland’s ability, but backing him at such a high price tag just isn’t worth it.
Instead, bettors can find better value by targeting one player whose stock is likely to rise after a breakout campaign.
Since Pep Guardiola took over as manager in 2016, Manchester City have won four consecutive Premier League titles, including six of the last eight.
But there is hope that the dominance of Spanish players in English football is beginning to wane.
After all, Manchester City have won two of their last three titles by less than two points.
Clubs are beginning to show greater ambition in England’s top flight through player recruitment, spending and managerial changes.
One team that springs to mind is Aston Villa, who qualified for the Champions League in Unai Emery’s first full season under manager.
Emery has the potential to score 20 goals with Ollie Watkins in a forward position.
Watkins has scored at least 10 goals in each of his four Premier League seasons and is on target to score 19 goals in 2023-24.
His performances earned him a call-up to the England national team and his goal in the 90th minute against the Netherlands helped England reach the European Championship final.
In a summer when most teams were reluctant to raise funds for fear of breaching the league’s financial rules, Aston Villa were very active in the market.
The Villains signed Amadou Onana from Everton for $64.6 million, setting a new club transfer record.
They also acquired left back Ian Maatsen from Chelsea for $48.9 million and left winger Samuel Illing Júnior from Juventus for $15.5 million.
Lewis Dobbin, who joined Onana from Everton for $11.6 million, will be an added threat on the left side of the pitch.
Learn more about the best US sports betting sites and apps
Argentina’s Enzo Barrenetxea is another defensive-minded player who can play either at the back or in midfield, and he joined Villa from Juventus for $9 million.
But perhaps the most underrated signing is Ross Barkley, acquired from Luton Town for $6.4 million.
Barkley’s impressive performances at Luton Town earned him a place in England’s squad for the European Championships.
Other additions to the attacking line include Cameron Archer ($18 million) from Sheffield United and Jayden Philogen ($16.7 million) from Hull City.
Archer can play in the forward line, while Philogene primarily plays as a winger.
Becoming the league’s leading scorer is an individual achievement, but no player can accomplish such a feat alone.
Watkins will have more chances and opportunities to score if the team around him is stronger, and he is 17/1 (FanDuel) to finish as the Premier League’s top scorer.
