What happens when an unstoppable force hits an immovable object?
The Stanley Cup Finals between Edmonton and Florida might not be the most attractive market for the average American sports betting fan, but Connor McDavid and his explosive supporting cast combine with the attrition of the Panthers to make for some great action.
Here’s the market’s response to this paradox ahead of Saturday’s Game 1 showdown, with the Panthers priced at -130 to win the Cup and the Oilers conservatively priced at +110 underdogs.
Edmonton has been one of the most consistent teams in puck possession throughout the regular season and continues to improve in that area every year thanks to the skill set of its talented home-grown players.
But as with other years in McDavid’s career, questions about goaltending and defensive depth raised concerns about a possible Cup run.
The Stars were a better litmus test than any other team — a well-balanced team that sold its goaltending and expertly eliminated time and space — and I was the first to say their composition would mask the Oilers’ weaknesses.
While we wait for the next disaster, Edmonton has a huge advantage in five-on-five flow and has moved into first place in the power play and penalty kill in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard have emerged as the top three scorers in the playoffs.
They also were a liability in their own half, allowing just four goals in the final three games to close out the series.
Stuart Skinner got off to his best start of the postseason in Game 6, a game the Oilers lost in shots, 34-10.
Despite that impressive performance, if you watched even 20 minutes of the Panthers-Rangers game you’d know the Oilers would fly 2,541 miles southeast to face a completely different opponent.
The Panthers suffocated the Rangers’ leading scorer with a relentless forecheck and won battles for the puck every step of the way on the ice.
If there’s one thing this series has proven, it’s that a lineup of unique players is better than one with homogenous scoring talent.
Florida’s defensive gaps in the neutral zone are much more aggressive than Dallas’ defense.
Of course, McDavid’s transition game can work magic against any structure, but clean entries are tough to find in Florida’s limited space.
If they can’t throw the puck deep and have success on the forecheck, they’re going to be at the center of turnovers.
You have to give credit where it’s due: The Panthers’ roster was beautifully constructed, from the draft pick of Aleksander Barkov to the bargain contracts of Gustav Forsling and Carter Verhaeghe to the trade acquisitions of Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett.
This team is precisely constructed for June, with a deep bench of big centers, a stout defense and the resurgent play of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky.
According to MoneyPac, Bobrovsky is stopping 4.8 goals above expectation, ranking fifth among playoff goalies.
Skinner has been able to perform well in front of the basket for opposing teams, but the Panthers have been able to get the win thanks to the efforts of Igor Shesterkin, Jeremy Swayman and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Where do Skinner’s career numbers fall on this list?
You can’t predict the outcome of an officiating call. Florida’s discipline gave them the edge in the Rangers series as an evenly matched team. The Panthers received just 15 fouls in six games.
Either way, the Oilers will need to make the most of their 37.3% power play conversion rate as Florida’s depth dwarfs the Oilers in both five-on-five shot differential and expected goals rate.
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This became evident when the two played together in the regular season — nearly six months after that.
Florida won both games despite Edmonton leading in all-situation scoring chances 126-121, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Oilers were 0-for-5 on the power play across both games.
The Oilers will have a chance, as will the Rangers, and it’s hard to ignore McDavid and Draisaitel.
Either way, the Panthers will return to the Cup final as a more mature team, with a coach who has played 1,779 more NHL games than their manager.
The best players in hockey may play on the biggest stage, but this is a team sport and in the long run, it’s the well-rounded, tenacious and hard-nosed play of the bench that wins the games.
