Some Soviet spacecraft are expected to crash back to Earth this weekend, but experts are still uncertain about their landing location.
Kosmos 482 was launched in March 1972 on a Soyuz Rocket, just a few days after the Venera 8 Atmospheric Probe, and was believed to have a similar mission. Originally aimed at reaching Venus, it couldn’t escape its low Earth orbit and consequently broke into four pieces.
Presently, the Kosmos 482 Lander Probe is anticipated to descend to Earth, potentially causing some turbulence. Marek Ziebert, a professor of space geodesy at University College London, mentioned that this scenario is unusual since decommissioned satellites typically burn up in Earth’s atmosphere due to drag.
However, this is not expected to be the case for Kosmos 482. This spacecraft was built to endure the harsh conditions of Venus, including acidic atmospheres and extreme temperatures. “Everything we send to Venus must be armored,” Ziebart explained.
As a result, the Lander Probe is likely sturdy enough to survive its passage through Earth’s atmosphere. “It weighs about 500 kg and is roughly a meter in diameter, so it should make it through,” he added.
Kosmos 482 isn’t the first to cause concern; some of its components previously landed in New Zealand after being activated. NASA noted that the Lander Probe is equipped with heat shields and parachutes for landing, but experts suggested these could be compromised after all this time.
The altitude of Kosmos 482 is gradually decreasing, but it remains unclear where it will land. NASA anticipates it will re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere sometime between May 9th and 10th.
The crash location is still uncertain. NASA believes the landing probe might descend somewhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. “We don’t need to worry about it hitting the poles,” Ziebart remarked.
Nasa expects to provide a more accurate time and place for re-entry in the next day or so, though significant uncertainty will persist until the actual event.
“This is uncontrolled, which is concerning because there’s nothing we can do to influence its path. We can only track it using telescopes and radar,” Ziebart noted, emphasizing the need for adequate radar coverage in the designated area.
He further mentioned that the Lander Probe is not just heavy; it will likely be moving quickly, implying “it could be destructive.”
Nevertheless, while the probe could potentially land in populated areas, Ziebert suggested that “it will most likely strike water,” given that water makes up about 72% of the Earth’s surface.
