On Tuesday night, the Yankees will face Orioles starter Albert Suarez, whose glowing 1.61 ERA may be a bit misleading.
The 34-year-old right-hander has filled in well in Baltimore’s injury-riddled starting rotation, but fundamental indicators suggest his success may not last.
Suarez’s projected ERA of 3.43 and projected FIP of 4.25 suggest he’s been incredibly fortunate to keep so many teams from scoring in his 44 2/3 innings this season while alternating between bullpen and starting roles.
He’s been lucky to avoid extra-base hits, allowing just one home run all season and sporting an unsustainably low batting average of 0.20 per nine innings.
It’s not like Suarez is forcing hitters to slam the ball into the ground: He’s allowed a fly ball rate of 38 percent, which is actually well above average.
Suarez’s first appearance in the Yankee Stadium bandbox would be the perfect day to end this unlikely trend.
And one of the hottest players on the planet to ever don a pinstriped uniform is a perfect target.
Aaron Judge is The longest 40-game streak in MLB historyDuring this period, he recorded a batting average of .387, an on-base percentage of .503, a slugging percentage of .937 and 20 home runs.
Judge has never faced Suarez, but he has batted much better against right-handed pitchers than left-handed ones this season and has performed better at Yankee Stadium than on the road so far in 2024.
Everything you need to know about MLB betting
Suarez also throws a four-seam fastball or cutter more than three-quarters of the time, two pitches that Judge has had the ability to use throughout his career.
Given Judge’s phenomenal form, a life-changing prize is unlikely, but there’s a good chance he’ll get over the wall tonight.
play: Aaron Judge hits a home run (+190, FanDuel)
*Eligible bettors can also participate in the “Dinger Tuesday” promotion by visiting FanDuel’s promotions page. (Minimum bet $25) Bettors who bet on a player to hit a home run will earn a bonus bet of $5 for each home run hit in that game.
