We're knee-deep in ACC college basketball conference play. This is a fun time of year.
And the matchup between Syracuse and Duke is always worth watching.
Of course, this isn't your typical Orange team. They moved on from Jim Boeheim and first-year head coach Adrian Autry led Syracuse into the 21st century. The Orange are currently up-tempo, guard-first on offense, and primarily play man-to-man on defense.
So while Duke has won seven straight against Syracuse (the Orange last won against the Blue Devils in January 2019), things could be different this year.
I don't know if the Orange will end their losing streak here, but I'm sure they will cover the spread with two touchdowns.
Syracuse vs. Duke odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| syracuse | +14.5 (-110) | +800 | o151.5 (-110) |
| duke | -14.5 (-110) | -1400 | u151.5 (-110) |
Syracuse vs. Duke predictions
(9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
There are two keys to stopping Duke.
First, they need to keep the Blue Devils out of transition. They love to run when they can.
Second, he needs to hunker down with superstar big man Kyle Filipovski.
I think Orange can handle both tasks.
They are elite open-court defenders, ranking seventh nationally in transition PPP allowed (.78).
Their inside defensive metrics are shaky, but they are above average in pick-and-roll roll man PPP allowed (.96) and have elite blocking metrics (13.8%, 24th nationally) behind the 6-foot big man duo. proud of. No. 8 Malik Brown and 7-foot-4 Naheem McLeod.
Don't overlook 6'9'' Benny Williams either. The Orange have bodies to throw to Filipovski.
Conversely, as has been hinted, Coach Autry is building Syracuse into a guard-first, isolation-focused, rim-running, up-tempo offense spearheaded by an elite backcourt of Judah Mintz and JJ Sterling. I built it up.
Mintz has the potential to be a top-five point guard in the ACC. He's dropping 19 points and four assists per game, while defensively he's scoring over two steals per game.
He's one of the most underrated players in America and the type of guy we should bet on going into conference play.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils' transition defense is poor (1.12 PPP allowed, 14th percentile among DI teams) and their isolation defense is even worse (0.97 PPP allowed, 9th percentile).
Tyrese Proctor is a devastating backcourt defender and it's great the Blue Devils have him back from injury. But Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain and Caleb Foster aren't elite defenders. Everyone may have a hard time staying in front of Mintz.
Filipovski should be able to pull Syracuse's big men out to the perimeter and space the floor to cook the Orange.
But I think Syracuse has enough schematic upside to keep this game within double digits. And we've already seen Duke struggle to the bottom of the ACC tournament this year, suffering an inexplicable loss at home to 12.5-point favorite Georgia Tech.
Predictive statistics sites agree. Evanmija projects Duke as a 12-point favorite at home on Tuesday, while Bart Torvik has Duke at -11.
Do you want to bet on college basketball?
Even better, the Action Network's internal numbers project Duke as just a 10-point favorite.
Roll with Cameron's Orange.
Syracuse vs. Duke picks
Syracuse +14.5 (-110, BetMGM) | Played to +14 (-110)
