ACC Tournament odds, prediction: Fade North Carolina, Duke

Fourteen league tournaments begin this week in college basketball, including one that will determine the winners of all six power conferences.

The University of North Carolina (+180) and Duke University (+180) are the favorites to win the ACC Tournament, which begins Tuesday, but I’d justify a 10/1 bet to pull off the upset and win it all. I found a team. Earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

ACC tournament odds

ACC Tournament Pick: Clemson

The Tigers are a volatile team that looks to take long shots in a tournament setting. Highly volatile teams with a wide range of outcomes give you a better chance of cashing in on unlikely outcomes.

Clemson primarily plays stud center P.J. Hall in the post, dragging the defense inside and giving Joe Girard (43% from beyond the arc) and other Tiger sharpshooters opportunities for perimeter jumpers.

As a result, Clemson University ranks in the top 100 nationally in 3-point percentage, making 24 triples per game.

Similarly, the Tigers play a compact interior-based defense that allows for a lot of long-range shots and ranks 282nd nationally in 3-point percentage.

The Clemson University game thus turns into a shootout, and the volatile nature of the game means anything can happen.

If the Tigers get hot from beyond the arc and their opponents go cold, they could claw their way to a fourth straight ACC tournament win. They did just that during a five-game winning streak in November, making 43% of their threes while holding opponents to 32% in wins over Boise State, Alcorn State, Alabama, Pitt State and South Carolina. .

I also feel surprisingly good about Clemson’s ability to skew the variance. Hall is so dominant inside that the Tigers get a lot of open jumpers and rank in the top 80 nationally in open 3 rate.

Conversely, Clemson has had a solid perimeter defense this season, ranking in the top 50 in open 3 rate allowed.

These games have been wildly inconsistent, but the Tigers have made more 3-pointers than they’ve allowed, and we can all appreciate that.

The Tigers also bring momentum to Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. They finished the year winning seven of their final 10 games, including a win over North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

The Tigers still drew a favorable tie in the conference tournament despite not getting the coveted double-bye. After receiving a first-round bye as the No. 6 seed, they will face either Boston College or Miami in the second round on Wednesday, a team they won their previous matchup by double digits.

Clemson will play Virginia in a potential quarterfinal matchup, with the Tigers dropping the regular-season contest at home on Feb. 3, 66-65.

But since that matchup, both teams have gone in different directions. Since Feb. 4, Clemson ranks third in the ACC in adjusted efficiency, while Virginia ranks eighth.

The Cavaliers can’t score and boast the third-worst offense in the ACC in terms of efficiency. The Hoos lost four of their final seven games to end the season, scoring fewer than 50 points in four games.

Therefore, if up-and-coming Clemson gets revenge by defeating underdog Virginia, the Tigers could have another revenge game against Duke in the semifinals.

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However, Duke only beat Clemson by one point in the game against Cameron, and the Blue Devils needed a performance of 9-of-21 (43%) from 3-point range to get there.

Duke will see a negative regression in shooting in the rematch, and the Tigers could win that matchup with a more normal shooting split.

That would give Clemson a ticket to the finals, where anything could happen.

The Tigers have proven they can beat any ACC opponent if they make the shots, and given their current form, style of play, and likely path forward, I’m willing to take them on. is.

Pick: Clemson wins ACC Tournament (+950, ​​FanDuel)