Here’s a look at the AFC Championship game between the Patriots and Broncos, happening Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver:
Key Matchup
Patriots left tackle Will Campbell versus Broncos linebacker Nick Bonitto
Bonitto, who racked up 14 sacks this season, is definitely no stranger to pressure. Meanwhile, Campbell—a rookie—has had a challenging season. After missing several weeks due to an MCL injury, he returned but has had difficulties, as seen in the wild-card matchup against the Chargers and last week against the Texans.
In the games he played, he allowed a strip sack to both the Chargers and Houston’s standout pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. Last week’s game also featured three sacks along with two fumbles he forced.
Considering Bonitto’s reputation as one of the top speed rushers in the league, Campbell might need some assistance from a running back to help mitigate that fast-paced pressure.
The Broncos led the league with an impressive 68 sacks this season. In their match against the Bills last week, Bonitto managed to sack quarterback Josh Allen three times and also forced two fumbles.
Four Key Points
First, swift conclusions: The team that executes better may very well come out on top. The Broncos are leveraging little-known backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, and relying too heavily on him could be risky.
The Patriots, boasting a strong rushing game, rank sixth in the league. Their key players include TrayVyon Henderson, with 911 yards and nine touchdowns, and Rhamondre Stephenson, who adds 603 yards and seven TDs.
I mean, they’ve averaged 156.1 rushing yards over their last seven games, and within that timeframe, Stephenson has six touchdowns (four rushing and two receiving). On the flip side, the Broncos allowed a staggering 183 rushing yards against Buffalo last week.
Denver’s running game hasn’t been as effective, ranking just 16th. They were hoping for the return of JK Dobbins, who’s been sidelined since November 6 with a foot injury that required surgery. But reports indicate he won’t be in this game.
In the games with Dobbins, the Broncos averaged about 129 rushing yards. Without him, they dropped to a little over 100 yards, and his average per carry plummeted from 4.8 to 3.8 yards.
Against the Bills last week, Denver’s ground attack was nearly nonexistent, with only 70 yards from 22 carries, mainly driven by quarterback Bo Nix’s runs. Jaleel McLaughlin gained 21 yards, while rookie RJ Harvey managed 20.
With this in mind, it seems like a crucial game for the Broncos as they navigate a tough situation without Dobbins.
“He brings a lot of energy to our team,” remarked right tackle Mike McGlinchey about Dobbins.
Next, ball security: Drake Maye has faced challenges concerning ball protection this season, highlighted by six fumbles (three of which were lost) across two playoff games. Notably, four of those fumbles, along with two points conceded, occurred in the recent matchup against Houston.
During the regular season, he fumbled eight times and admitted this issue isn’t something new for him.
“I need to focus on my role in protecting the ball,” Maye explained, emphasizing how important it is to be vigilant.
While Denver’s impressive defense catches eyes, it’s interesting to note they’ve forced just 17 turnovers this season—10 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries—despite having the best pass rush and leading the league in sacks.
However, they did force five turnovers against Buffalo last week.
“We need to ensure we take care of the football,” coach Mike Vrabel emphasized.
Finally, pressure tactics: The Patriots have leaned into blitz strategies, having targeted Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert during the wild-card round and going after CJ Stroud of Houston in their last game.
Pro Football Focus showed that New England blitzed Stroud on nearly half of his dropbacks, achieving a fairly high success rate. In fact, during the first half alone, they forced him to complete only 36% of his passes and limited him to just 40 yards.
Given that Denver’s backup quarterback Stidham hasn’t had much NFL experience, the Patriots will likely intensify their pursuit, especially considering Stidham’s previous connection with New England’s offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
“We’re utilising all available resources, and Josh’s familiarity with Stidham offers valuable insights,” Vrabel noted.
What’s at stake: For Vrabel, this game holds significant weight. It’s one of the last substantial milestones in his coaching journey, where he has experienced success with championships but has yet to reach a Super Bowl as a head coach, unlike when he played.
Can Maye improve ball protection and make notable plays against a formidable Denver defense? And will New England’s defense hold Stidham in check to prevent a fairy tale postseason story?
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Broncos 17
