After months of public optimism about the prospects for a ceasefire, Biden administration officials are pessimistic about the prospects for an end to the war between Israel and Hamas.
“We're no closer to that now than we were a week ago,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday, calling the prospect of a deal “daunting.”
“No deal is imminent,” the U.S. official said. of The Wall Street Journal. “I don't know if that's going to happen.”
The Israelis condemn Hamas Earlier this month, Israel launched a terror attack that it blames for killing six hostages, including an American. Arab officials have accused Israel of using explosive pagers and walkie-talkies and conducting airstrikes aimed at killing Hezbollah fighters, raising the possibility of a multi-front war.
“That doesn't look likely now,” one Arab official said after the latest operation against Hezbollah. “Everyone is waiting to see after the elections, which will determine what happens with the next government.”
Members of the Rapid Reaction Force responded to further Hezbollah rocket attacks on Kibbutz Manara. (Kibbutz Manara Rapid Response Unit)
For Biden, a former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who has touted his diplomatic skills, failing to close the deal would be a blow to his record. It would mean the beginning and end of his presidency: a messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, peace after the outbreak of war in the Middle East and false hope that the return of some 250 hostages held by Hamas on Oct. 7 is imminent.
Officials told The Wall Street Journal that recent attacks on Hezbollah were the main reasons for their pessimism, as well as the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel would be asked to release in order to bring the hostages home.
Former Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin told Fox News Digital he was less pessimistic about the chances of a deal.
“Nobody has walked away from the negotiating table. We are not saying the negotiations are over. Qatar and Egypt are still continuing to cooperate with us in the talks. The agreed three-stage framework remains valid,” he said.
“The problem is not the framework but the implementation,” he said, noting that negotiations remain unresolved on which prisoners will be released, how their safety will be guaranteed and how to deal with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Israel attacks Hezbollah base in Lebanon
“These implementation issues keep coming up,” he said. “You hear Hamas stepping up its demands, adding new members, continuing to make more demands. And you hear Israel demanding the Philadelphia Corridor, and all of a sudden that's off the table. Both sides want more and more of their own interests and gains. So the negotiators are frustrated.”
As the Biden administration continues to explore ways to move forward with a deal, public comments that have held out hope for months contradict the private sentiment in some quarters that ceasefire efforts are futile.
On July 19, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a ceasefire agreement was in sight.
“I believe we are within the 10-yard line and making progress toward our goal of achieving a ceasefire, bringing home the hostages, and reaching an agreement that puts us on a better trajectory to building lasting peace and stability,” Blinken said.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Egypt this week to continue talks on the ceasefire. (Egyptian Presidential Palace/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
President Biden said on August 17 that he was “optimistic” about reaching a deal. “We're closer than ever,” he said, adding that he would send Blinken to Israel to continue “our intensive efforts to get a deal done.”
Blinken said on August 19 that Israel had “accepted the proposal” and that the next step was for Hamas to agree.
“The next big statement is for Hamas to say 'yes,' and then in the coming days all of our professional negotiators will come together and work on coming to a clear understanding on how the agreement will be implemented,” Blinken told a news conference in Tel Aviv.
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“This is a defining moment, perhaps our best and last chance to bring the hostages home, achieve a ceasefire and put us on a better path to lasting peace and security for all.”
But those comments came a day after Hamas said it would not agree to the proposal. Hamas opposed Israeli control of the Rafah-Philadelphia corridor, as demanded by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Later, on September 2, Biden claimed the US was “very close” to reaching a ceasefire agreement that would lead to the hostages' release. Asked why he was optimistic given the failure of other agreements, he replied, “Hope is an eternal spring.”
Blinken again expressed optimism about a deal this week but warned after the barrage of pagers that “escalation” could derail progress.
“It is essential that all parties refrain from any actions that could escalate the conflict,” Blinken said at a news conference in Egypt.
President Biden has long insisted a ceasefire was imminent, even as officials privately doubted it. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque)
Blinken said he was focused on an agreement that would bring calm on all sides, including on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, and said all sides had agreed to 15 of the agreement's 18 articles.
He blamed long wait times for passing messages between the parties, which left room for negotiations to be stalled.
“We've seen that in that time, there can be events and incidents that make the process more difficult, that threaten to slow down, halt or derail the process. And anything of that nature, by definition, is probably not good in terms of achieving the outcome that we want, which is a ceasefire,” Blinken said.
After his visit to Egypt, he went to Paris to discuss prospects for an agreement with European leaders.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met on Wednesday with relatives of the seven remaining American hostages being held in Gaza, and said the families “expressed frustration at the lack of concrete progress” to him.
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On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the pager attacks a “declaration of war” in a televised address and said attacks on Israel would continue until the war with Gaza ends. Similarly, Israel's defense minister vowed to continue attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and to thwart the group's rocket and missile attacks so that some 70,000 Israelis living in the northern border region can return home.
