With all eyes in the college football world on Alabama this weekend, it's no surprise that two plays come from this hotbed of football.
Here's how I'm playing the huge showdown between the Dawgs and Tide, and why I'm taking the Service Academy seriously.
Georgia at Alabama (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Given the Bulldogs' elite talent, it's safe to say there's something wrong with their offense.
Since the beginning of last season, Georgia has fallen behind the starting blocks six times.
They failed to score more than 10 points in the first half against South Carolina, Auburn and Mizzou in the 2023 regular season, and looked similarly sluggish against Alabama in the SEC title game.
That sleepy start continued into 2024, as the Bulldogs combined for just nine points in the first half against Clemson and Kentucky.
We expect this trend to continue.
Mike Bobo's play calling lacks killer instincts and Georgia is vulnerable to game-breakers on the perimeter.
This is why I support Alabama leading to the locker room at halftime.
If you play a double result where Alabama leads at halftime and Georgia comes back to win the game, the payout is now +625.
Since taking over in Athens, Kirby Smart has faced Alabama six times.
Double results like the one I constructed here, featuring a late reversal, were achieved in four out of six times.
I'm looking for a slow start from quarterback Carson Beck and Georgia, but I'm looking for some second-half adjustments from Smart and his staff.
And given the defensive performance thus far (3rd in SP+), I expect this to be a one-possession game either way.
An added bonus was that Smart and his staff had an extra week to adjust the offense. So expect some new wrinkles and a trick play or two if they fall behind Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Recommendation: Double result — Alabama leads at halftime, Georgia wins game (+625, FanDuel).
Navy at UAB (Noon, ESPN)
Stay in the Yellowhammer State. Navy is traveling to the “Magic City” of Birmingham to take on Trent Dilfer's Blazers.
Last season, it was a standout for the Midshipmen, who dominated UAB 31-6. It was the only time the Blazers did not score more than 20 points all season.
PJ Volker and his defensive staff know how to defend the short passing game that is uncomfortable for Jacob Zeno. I expect more of the same to happen on Saturday.
But the real reason I'm bullish on the Cadets, who I cover as road weaks, is because their offense is doing well.
New offensive coordinator Drew Kronic has successfully added Wing-T elements to Navy's traditional option attack.
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The results were amazing. The Midshipmen totaled 566 yards against Memphis last week, ending the Tigers' hopes of winning the CFP.
Blake Horvath threw for 192 yards in the AAC contest against Memphis, contributing to the nation's best QBR. Because of the balance between the run and passing games, Navy currently leads the nation in chunk plays of 30 yards or more from scrimmage (three times per game).
“Navy has great team speed, but it's better than good,” Dilfer said this week.
That speed is evident in the video, with mid backs and receivers running amok in the second and third layers of the defense.
The Blazers' defensive numbers confirm their issues.
They drew FCS Alcorn State and Louisiana Monroe early on, skewing the statistics.
They would be in deep water against naval attacks planning haymakers on the ground and in the air.
Recommended: Navy -3.5 (-110, DraftKings).
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, focusing on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots such as travel, breaks, and elevation changes.
