After close calls against Boston College and Vanderbilt, I think it's time to sell Missouri high.
The Tigers' strength of schedule isn't all that impressive (4-0 against BC, VAN, Buffalo, and Murray State).
On the other hand, I think it's time to buy Texas A&M cheap.
Although the Aggies were unable to cover Bowling Green and Arkansas, they still defeated two teams that far exceeded market expectations (7-2 ATS).
Texas A&M's defense is vulnerable to deep passing plays, but Missouri's offense isn't built to take advantage of it.
The Tigers rank 119th in the nation in explosiveness, with Brady Cook completing 3 of 14 passes for 20 or more yards downfield.
It's possible that Connor Weigman will be healthy for this game, but I have no problem with the Aggies starting Marcell Reed again.
They transitioned to a more RPO/dual-threat attack with Reid under center, and Vanderbilt utilized a similar scheme to stay close against Missouri State.
Contender: Texas A&M -2.5.
Vanderbilt (+23.5) vs. Alabama
Vanderbilt runs a quasi-triple option offense.
The Commodores run the ball more than 60 percent of the time with two-way quarterback Diego Pavia, shortening games and making them the team to bet on as the big loser.
They've been featured as a giant dog twice already this year, soundly defeating Virginia Tech with 13.5 catches and losing by three to Missouri with 17.5 catches.
Vanderbilt will have to cover again as a monster home underdog against Alabama.
The Tide is coming off a disappointing game after an emotional win over Georgia last week, but their biggest weakness is their rushing defense, which ranks 73rd nationally in rushing success rate allowed. are.
Pavia and Vandy's offense will need to move the ball methodically on the ground and make it difficult for Jalen Milroe to establish a margin.
Minnesota (+8.5) vs. USC
Minnesota doesn't play the most difficult schedule of passing attacks by far, but Minnesota's pass defense may be legit.
P.J. Fleck's stopping unit ranks 22nd in the nation in sack percentage, 38th in Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and tops the nation in EPA per pass allowed.
USC will always have a talented offense under Lincoln Riley.
However, the Trojans seem to rely overwhelmingly on Miller Moss this season.
There's no question he's talented, but the team ranks 7th in the nation in passing percentage (over 61%) and 60th in the nation in EPA per rush.
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Meanwhile, Minnesota is underrated after last week's failure against Michigan State.
The Gophers ran seven more plays and outgained the Wolverines by 73 yards, yet lost by three.
A lost fumble at their own 12-yard line was the deciding factor.
I don't have much faith in Minnesota's offense.
Still, I think New Hampshire transfer and FCS phenom passer Max Brosmer is starting to develop after gaining 450 yards against elite secondaries in Iowa and Michigan.
USC's defense is one of the most improved units in the FBS, but the Trojans aren't as talented as these opponents. They still rank 87th nationally in pass completion percentage.
last week: 0-3. Baylor (left), Oklahoma State (left), Penn State (left)
2024 season: 6-9
