Wimbledon final weekend is fast approaching, and the odds are pointing to a rematch of last year’s classic final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Is it that simple, or could either Daniil Medvedev or Lorenzo Musetti pull off the upset?
Carlos Alcaraz (-330) vs. Daniil Medvedev (+260)
Returning to the Wimbledon semifinals for the second straight year is an incredible feat for defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, but the path to getting there has been much tougher than his near-perfect 2023 run.
Alcaraz was unstoppable on grass last year, winning all 12 matches he played on the field and beating Djokovic in a nail-biting five-set final.
Even more impressive is that Alcaraz only dropped five sets out of 12 matches.
That form will be nearly impossible to replicate, but Alcaraz’s journey to the quarterfinals has been tougher than anyone expected.
The Spaniard started his grass season with an early defeat at Queen’s Club and had some close calls in the Championship.
Alcaraz breezily won the first two rounds before having to fight back in a hard-fought five-set battle against an out-of-form Francis Tiafoe and then played less convincingly in a four-set win over Tommy Paul.
If Paul had a B grade, we’d probably be here talking about him.
Winning without playing to his best is the mark of a champion, but Alcaraz will need to regain his level of ability if he is to reach consecutive finals, because Daniil Medvedev looks like a man on a mission.
Amazingly, Medvedev came into the tournament as low odds of 60/1 to win Wimbledon, despite already reaching a Grand Slam final in 2024 and a semi-final here in 2023.
Medvedev’s draw was tough and he hasn’t really stood out on clay, but it was pretty shocking how little attention he got before the start of the two weeks of competition.
To add to the confusion, even after Medvedev reached the fourth round, his outright odds remained close to 40/1.
It’s clear that the betting markets undervalued Medvedev heading into the tournament, and given his odds against Alcaraz, it’s fair to wonder whether the oddsmakers continue to do so.
The defending champions are the obvious favorites to win Friday’s match, but while Medvedev looked impressive in his five-set quarterfinal win over world number one Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz is yet to show his best.
Betting amount: Daniil Medvedev (+260, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Novak Djokovic (-690) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+480)
It was no surprise that Djokovic reached the Wimbledon semi-finals this year, but given his form and the fact that it had been a month since his knee surgery, there were undoubtedly many who questioned whether the 37-year-old Serb could win again this time.
But Djokovic, as always, silenced the doubters with another strong performance.
He also got a lucky break when Alex de Minaur had to withdraw from his quarter-final match due to injury.
Djokovic will now have three full days of rest after his quick and painless win over Holger Run on Monday.
Known for his clay court prowess, Lorenzo Musetti’s run to the semi-finals was surprising, but he has had a relatively easy road so far, with his only real test coming against a disastrous Taylor Fritz.
An in-form Djokovic should be able to overpower the Italian, especially having beaten him at the French Open in June.
Betting amount: Djokovic -2.5 sets (+110, DraftKings)
