A big reason why the public is so hung up on the Yankees is that the Guardians are a team that ranks first in the MLB in everything from expected slugging percentage to barrel percentage, according to Statcast. That's because they were one of the weakest hitting teams.
This difference was also visible in Tuesday's second game.
Despite loading the bases in the fourth and fifth innings, Cleveland was unable to generate any scoring momentum.
But perhaps their chances might have been taken differently had it not been for the two defensive mistakes that cost the Guardians a goal.
It was an uncharacteristic flaw in Cleveland's game. He finished fourth overall in fielding run value with above-average runs per FanGraphs.
Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3 odds
| team | money line | run line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| yankees | -120 | -1.5 (+150) | o7.5 (+100) |
| guardian | +100 | +1.5 (-178) | u7.5 (-120) |
The Guardians will start Matthew Boyd, who moved into the rotation relatively smoothly in the second half of the season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Boyd was perfect in limited action in his two starts in the Division Series, allowing zero earned runs with five strikeouts in each of 6/3 innings.
From a technical standpoint, Boyd's execution of the pitch mix after his return should be well received. His velocity has improved on four of five pitches, and his slider and curveball are turning batters away at a higher rate than in 2023.
He is especially effective against left-handed batters, holding his batting average to .143.
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Clark Schmidt will start in pinstripes after more than a week of rest, while the Yankees' main left-handed hitters like Juan Soto will vie for the challenge.
Schmidt, on the other hand, has struggled against left-handed bats, posting a slash line of .238/.326/.363, which is trouble for a lineup that started eight left-handed hitters on Tuesday. .
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The Guardians have yet to take the lead in this series, but they have a chance to go even with the Yankees thanks to a relief staff that posted an MLB-best 2.57 ERA in the regular season.
If they can mitigate the extra-base hits, expect Cleveland to stiffen up and consider the value still provided in a difficult road win for the Yankees.
THE PLAY: Guardians (+100, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Sean Trepedi is handicapped by the NFL, NHL, MLB, and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to reduce risk.
