Game 3 of the ALCS was an instant classic, with the Yankees leading 2-0 heading into Cleveland, which breathed new life into an ALCS that looked a little boring.
The Yankees had a 99% winning percentage until Emmanuel Clase hit a two-run lead in the top of the 8th inning, and Johnkensie Noel hit a pinch-hit, 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th inning.
Game 4 will be closely priced in the betting market as two starting pitchers who haven't pitched in recent weeks will make their first postseason starts, as Lewis Gil is scheduled to face Gavin Williams of the Yankees. has been done.
Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4 odds
| team | money line | run line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| yankees | -118 | -1.5 (+140) | o7.5 (-112) |
| guardian | +100 | +1.5 (-170) | u7.5 (-108) |
After a strong start to the campaign, Gill's form declined from August to September. Gill's last start was on September 28 against Pittsburgh, where he allowed six earned runs in five innings.
Gil has a 4.20 ERA in his past 10 starts, but his underlying profile is pretty unconvincing. He pitched to an xFIP of 4.90 while getting hit hard 40% of the time and held a K-BB% of 11.5.
Although Gil has quality items, he has consistently struggled with command throughout his career. If Gill struggles with command early on, it won't be easy on a cold night and a disciplined Guardians offense. Gill has thrown strikes against right-handed batters just 61% of the time this season, the second-lowest rate among starting pitchers who have pitched 60 or more innings.
Gil's return from a lengthy break makes this matchup more volatile, but there's an argument that taking time to reset might not be the worst thing for the 26-year-old right-hander.
The Yankees used six relief pitchers for Thursday's matchup, with Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Tim Hill pitching in all three games of the series.
If Gill is unable to work deep in this game, Aaron Boone may choose to use Marcus Stroman as a long reliever, but given Stroman's 5.98 ERA in the second half, that's not likely to be the case for Boone. It is highly likely that this is not the plan that you prefer.
Meanwhile, Williams hasn't pitched since September 22 against St. Louis.
Follow The Post's coverage of the Yankees in the postseason:
Like Gill, Williams started the season strong but performed significantly worse in the second half. Over his last 10 starts, Williams pitched 47 innings with a 5.55 ERA. In that span, he posted an xFIP of 4.27 and a .246 batting average.
The Yankees' batting lineup was the best in the league against right-handed pitchers this season, posting a wRC+ of 120 and an OPS of .777. They hit the fastball very well (68.5w fastball batting average above average), so Williams may need to adjust his pitch composition to have success in this matchup.
Neither of these teams' offensive performance has worsened compared to higher quality weapons this postseason. The Yankees have a league-leading 115 wRC+ this postseason. They posted a league-best K/BB ratio of 0.83 and a league-leading hard hit rate of 37.9% over that span. Cleveland's offense reached a wRC+ of 94 in that span, which is tied for fourth and matches its second-half results.
Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting
Chris Segal served as the umpire for this matchup and is historically a hitter-friendly player. With Seagull as the umpire, the totals are 141-120-10 (O/U) for an ROI of +4.3%.
Both of Friday's starters struggled down the stretch and are a concern going into this game. Both bullpens also look less convincing than usual, as the Guardians' typically untouchable, high-leverage arms haven't been dominant this postseason, while the Yankees' top arms may not be available. .
This looks like a good spot to push the game to over 7.5 runs at -130 or higher.
BEST BET: 7.5 or higher (-112, FanDuel)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but he's also up 180 units himself with verified picks on sports betting apps. Nick can be found at X @nickm_hockey.
