Thanks to a clutch home run by Giancarlo Stanton and a strong performance from the bullpen, the Yankees earned a 3-2 victory in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Royals, giving them the opportunity to put their ace on the mound and close out the series on Thursday. . .
Game 4 will be a repeat of the pitching battle from Game 1, with Gerrit Cole set to face Michael Wacha again.
Neither starting pitcher had a particularly good performance in the series opener, with the Yankees winning 6-5, allowing six earned runs over nine innings. It happened in a game that set an MLB playoff record for lead changes.
The over/under for Thursday night's Game 4 (8:08 p.m., TBS) is an astonishing 7.5, and oddsmakers aren't expecting a similar development.
Yankees vs. Royals Game 4 ALDS odds
| team | money line | run line | over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| yankees | -150 | -1.5 (+100) | o7.5 (-120) |
| royals | +125 | +1.5 (-130) | u7.5 (+100) |
Yankees vs. Royals predictions
Some would argue that Kansas City has three better starters than Wacha, so it's not ideal for him to start twice in this series.
In his last four starts, Wacha has an xFIP of 4.36 and a Stuff+ rating of 91.
He doesn't have the swing-and-miss factor, and the Yankees got a good look at him in Game 1, managing a .266 xBA and giving up three walks.
The Yankees were the best team in the league against right-handed pitchers this season, with a wRC+ of 120.
Cole allowed seven hits in Game 1, but only had four strikeouts. The Royals had a 65% hard hitting percentage in this matchup with the right-handed pitcher posting an xBA of .355.
Cole has been solid in his past five starts, but his fundamental numbers are not up to the standards of an ace, with an xFIP of 3.93 and a pitching+ rating of 106.
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In his past three appearances, he has allowed a zone contact rate of 86.1% and his swinging strike rate has dropped to 9%.
The Royals' offense at home is more effective and their bat discipline has improved significantly. They had a wRC+ of 100 against right-handed hitters at Kauffman Stadium and had the sixth-best K/BB ratio.
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The bullpen is in slightly worse shape than in Game 1, and compared to Yankee Stadium, “The K” is a better ballpark for producing runs.
I believe the total for this game should be higher than 7.5, as these starters look to bounce back from their abysmal performance in the opening game.
Best bet: 7.5 runs or more (-115, bet 365)
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Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB, and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but he's also up 180 units himself on the sports betting app's verified picks. Nick can be found at X @nickm_hockey.
