Given the state of the Detroit Tigers' starting rotation, it looked as if Tarik Skubal would need to win both starts to have a chance in the ALDS against Cleveland.
That sounds especially true after the Guardians dominated 7-0 in Game 1 on Saturday heading into Monday's Game 2.
Tigers vs. Guardians Game 2 odds
| team | money line | run line | over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| tigers | -130 | -1.5 (+145) | o6 (-110) |
| guardian | +110 | +1.5 (-175) | u6 (-110) |
Tigers vs. Guardians Game 2 Prediction
Skubal was sensational in his playoff debut against the Astros in the wild-card round, and more than lived up to the excitement of a spectacular regular season.
The Triple Crown Champion of the American League pitched six innings in a difficult environment against a batting lineup with a proven track record in the playoffs, allowing zero earned runs and four hits.
Prior to that start, he ended his Cy Young Award candidacy with a 1.42 ERA and 2.06 FIP in his last five starts. During that span, he held a K-BB% of 28.2.
Most pitchers' performance slows significantly as they progress into the third order, often leading to hotly contested decisions about how long to keep starting pitchers during the postseason.
But Skubal has been great in his third order, which is relevant considering Tigers manager AJ Hinch wants to keep the ace on the mound until Game 2 on Monday. Maybe.
In his third order, Skubal is still striking out 31% of batters and hitting just .215. This is almost unheard of at the MLB level.
Matthew Boyd, who will face Skubal on Monday, is a quality starter in his own right, and the Tigers know that, considering the veteran left-hander spent eight seasons in Detroit.
He's in the best years of his career, and after a career filled with mediocrity, he seems to have found something in Cleveland.
In mid-August, Boyd made his first start in over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In eight starts, he pitched 39 2/3 innings, posting a record of 2 wins, 2 losses, and an ERA of 2.72.
He enters Game 2 with a 3.89 xFIP, 3.10 xERA, and .236 xBA. His arsenal lacks pitching models (Staff + 75, Pitching + 95).
The Guardians' second-half wRC+ against left-handed pitchers is 106, 12th. His strikeout rate was just 18.5% during that time, but his strong bat discipline paid off as he ranked 27th in hard hitting percentage.
The Tigers posted a wRC+ of 91 against left-handed hitters in the second half and were quite effective against right-handed hitters with a wRC+ of 105.
Picks for Game 2 between Tigers and Guardians
I think we'll see Skubal get into this with another dominant game on Monday afternoon.
If Detroit is going to do any damage, it will still have its best chance of trying to find a lead on the Aces early before the Guardians' overwhelmingly high-leverage relievers enter the game.
Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting
Skubal has won in 61.2% of his starts (19 of 31) this season, suggesting a -158 betting line to record a win as a baseline.
I'm not going to argue this by any means, but -158 is actually a fair price for Skubal to win in this tough situation. Considering the actual price is +145 for a bet of 365, this is too good an amount to pass up.
Best bet: Tarik Skubal records victory (+145, bet 365)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but he's also up 180 units himself on the sports betting app's verified picks. Nick can be found at X @nickm_hockey.
