Selection Sunday is less than a month away, arriving on Dec. 6. Between now and then, plenty of people will publish projected brackets. We all seem to enjoy making them, even though they’re usually wrecked within days.
With the second set of playoff rankings due Tuesday night, here’s another way to look at the race: by tiers. There are 32 teams still in contention, by my count, for 12 places. This is a broad snapshot of where they stand before the new rankings arrive.
For now, I’m using each team’s AP Poll position as a reference point. The committee’s rankings don’t always match the AP poll, of course.
See you in December
- No. 1 Georgia (8-1)
- No. 2 Utah (9-0)
- No. 3 Notre Dame (8-1)
- No. 5 Miami (8-1)
These teams should all make the playoff unless something genuinely unexpected happens. Georgia has difficult games against Missouri and South Carolina, but it would likely need to lose both before its place became seriously uncertain. Utah faces a tough trip to Arizona this weekend, then closes against TCU and West Virginia. The Utes would probably need two losses to be in danger, and even that might not be enough to keep them out.
Notre Dame has built a strong enough résumé with its win over Miami that even a surprising home loss to SMU on Nov. 21 might not end its chances. Miami, meanwhile, can still reach 10 or 11 wins and play for the ACC title despite losing in South Bend. The Hurricanes could really use Malachi Toney back at full strength. Their offense misses the quick throws and yards after the catch he brings.
In very good position
- No. 6 Indiana (8-1)
- No. 7 Alabama (7-2)
- No. 8 Texas (7-2)
The committee placed Indiana at No. 4 last week, so it would be surprising to see the Hoosiers fall below their current AP ranking of sixth on Tuesday. They have a difficult game against USC this weekend, but a loss probably wouldn’t erase their playoff case. Losing again at Washington or against Purdue, though, would make things much more uncomfortable.
Alabama was already No. 5 in the committee’s last ranking, and its win at LSU should help its standing. The Tide aren’t expected to lose to Vanderbilt, Auburn or FCS opponent Chattanooga. Even if they do take another loss, they could become the strongest candidate among teams with three defeats.
Texas could lose a third game, but the Longhorns already have three wins over top-25 teams. A loss to either LSU or Texas A&M wouldn’t automatically end their hopes.
Controlling their fate, but sweating
- No. 4 UCLA (9-0)
- No. 9 Tennessee (7-2)
- No. 10 Texas Tech (8-1)
- No. 11 Wake Forest (8-1)
- No. 15 USC (7-2)
UCLA may take a hit for having a backup quarterback for the rest of the season, even if Ty Dieffenbach keeps winning. If the Bruins win two of their final three games — against Illinois, at Michigan and against USC — I think they’ll have their playoff place secured heading into the Big Ten Championship. Two losses would put them on the bubble. None of those games is a sure thing, including the matchup with a struggling Michigan offense.
Tennessee can win its way into the field, but the remaining schedule is demanding: at Texas A&M, against LSU and at Vanderbilt. None looks like an easy win, even with both the Aggies and Commodores having difficult seasons. Texas Tech would be in excellent shape if it wins 11 regular-season games, but this weekend’s trip to Oklahoma State feels close to a toss-up. Baylor, playing well under interim coach Joe Klanderman, could also make things tricky.
Wake Forest has an unusual case: no standout wins, but only one loss, to Miami. Winning out would settle things, though that’s a tall order. If Wake finishes 11-2 with two losses to Miami, I suspect it would be just outside the field, much like last year’s BYU team, which went 11-2 with two unremarkable losses to Texas Tech. Still, the Demon Deacons could benefit if the race gets messy elsewhere.
USC is currently well outside the playoff picture. But a 3-0 finish would leave the Trojans 10-2, with wins over both Indiana and UCLA. That would make their case hard to dismiss. More likely, a loss at Indiana on Saturday would leave USC with very little room to recover.
Need help, but still in the thick of it
- No. 12 BYU (7-2)
- No. 13 Kentucky (7-2)
- No. 14 Houston (7-2)
- No. 16 Iowa (7-2)
- No. 22 Arizona (7-2)
BYU is outside the field and has no remaining opportunities for a particularly valuable win. The Cougars also aren’t in the Big Ten or SEC, which could count against them if the committee is sorting through several two-loss teams. Still, they have a major win over a Notre Dame team that’s been improving.
The committee appeared to think highly of Kentucky, ranking the Wildcats sixth before their loss to Tennessee. A third defeat would put them in a difficult spot, but wins over Florida, Missouri and Louisville should be enough to keep their case alive.
Houston and Arizona need a lot of help. Their clearest path may be reaching the Big 12 Championship, though five other teams are also in the mix to varying degrees.
Iowa faces a similar problem. Its best win is probably against Wisconsin or Northwestern, and the Hawkeyes may have only one borderline top-25 win by Selection Sunday. I usually consider a 10-2 Big Ten or SEC team with a healthy quarterback close to a lock, but this Iowa team might not have quite enough on its résumé.
In a better spot than you might think
- No. 24 LSU (6-3)
LSU is 0-3 against top-25 opponents, and a heavily hyped season has gone badly so far. But if the Tigers win their final three games, they would beat Texas and Tennessee while also taking care of Arkansas. That would give them two high-quality wins they don’t currently have.
I’m not sure LSU would control its own destiny, but the Tigers would be more than a remote possibility if they suddenly found their form. That’s a substantial “if,” admittedly.
Three-loss trouble
- No. 18 Oregon (6-3)
- No. 19 Ole Miss (6-3)
- No. 20 South Carolina (6-3)
- No. 21 Ohio State (6-3)
All four teams are currently ranked ahead of LSU, but they have fewer chances left to improve their résumés. Oregon’s remaining schedule is Michigan, Michigan State and Washington. Ole Miss also has no obvious marquee opportunity; even a win over 5-4 Oklahoma probably wouldn’t turn into a notable result. Ohio State has run out of big games, too.
South Carolina does still have one meaningful chance: a home game against Georgia in two weeks. The Gamecocks will be heavy underdogs, and even an upset might not be enough to push them into the top 11. Still, Shane Beamer’s team can at least make the race more interesting.
The Group of 6 race
- No. 17 Boise State (8-1)
- No. 23 New Mexico (8-1)
- Liberty (8-1)
- North Texas (7-2)
- Memphis (7-2)
- UTSA (7-2)
- Louisiana Tech (7-2)
The committee ranked Boise State 25th last week and should move the Broncos up a place or two on Tuesday, though probably not as high as the AP poll has them. The non-power-conference playoff spot is Boise’s to lose at this point.
It would help to see New Mexico or Liberty — ideally New Mexico — appear in Tuesday’s rankings, giving us a clearer idea of how the rest of the race looks. If Boise stumbles against Oregon State, the Lobos seem best positioned to catch up. The three two-loss American teams would need a lot to go their way, but I wouldn’t rule them out just yet. Louisiana Tech is also worth keeping in the conversation as it has rolled through its first Sun Belt season.
And if you’d rather focus on Boise State and New Mexico and leave the rest of this group aside, that’s understandable.
Still in the ACC race
- No. 25 SMU (7-2)
- Duke (7-2)
- Louisville (6-3)
None of these teams is out of the picture, because someone has to meet Miami in the ACC Championship. If SMU beats Wake Forest this week, the Mustangs have a real chance to get there. Duke, last year’s ACC champion despite finishing with five losses, and Louisville, which dropped three early games through a series of mistakes, are still in the race as well. They’re worth keeping an eye on this week.
