On Tuesday, I got a WhatsApp message from the official GovBR account of the Brazilian government. It read: “Olá HARRISON. Informamos que foi publicada a Medida Provisória que proibe bets no Brasil,” which means, “Hi Harrison, we inform you that a provisional measure has been issued prohibiting bets in Brazil.” This message was part of a series of alerts the government started sending out on Saturday.
The abrupt announcement of the betting ban, which will remain in effect for 120 days unless Brazil’s Congress approves it, has stirred up quite a discussion, especially since it comes just days before the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections set for October 2026. Opposition leaders and political analysts quickly noted that the government might be crossing ethical lines by using official channels to push what seems like campaign-related info.
This provisional order, published on September 25, 2026, arrives at a challenging moment for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or simply Lula, as he looks for re-election for the first time since he took office over twenty years ago.
Lula, who once worked as a metalworker and is known for losing a finger in an industrial accident, climbed the ranks within the union movement, eventually founding the Workers’ Party (PT). He was president from 2003 to 2010, leaving with high popularity after initiating the Bolsa Família program, which provides financial support to low-income families — a significant portion of Brazil’s population. Yet, his tenure is also overshadowed by ongoing corruption allegations. In 2017, Lula faced a corruption conviction related to the extensive “Lava Jato” (Car Wash) investigation, spending 580 days in prison and missing the 2018 election. However, his convictions were annulled by the Supreme Court in 2021, based partly on controversial claims made by journalist Glenn Greenwald and The Intercept Brasil regarding judicial bias. Lula made his comeback in 2022 by narrowly defeating Jair Bolsonaro.
This election, he’s up against Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of Jair. The Bolsonaro family has controversial ties to Brazil’s past military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985, with Jair openly expressing admiration for that era. In 2016, he dedicated his vote for the impeachment of Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, who suffered torture during the dictatorship, to a colonel notorious for commanding a torture center.
In September 2025, Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for a coup attempt aimed at reversing the outcome of the 2022 election. The court that annulled Lula’s conviction had eight justices, while Jair’s ruling came from only five, appearing to be modified for a specific outcome. With Jair Bolsonaro locked up, Flávio is now the candidate.
Flávio is also backed by the U.S. government, having met with officials in the Oval Office in May 2026 shortly after Lula’s conversation with Trump. During his visit, he asked the U.S. to label two Brazilian criminal organizations — Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) — as foreign terrorist groups, a request that was rapidly granted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, there are other crime factions in Brazil that didn’t receive similar designations: Terceiro Comando Puro (TCP) and local militias, historically linked to the Bolsonaro family.
The close race between Lula and Flávio is significantly influenced by a corruption scandal involving the Supreme Court, the STF. Central to the issue is a prominent banker and a chief judge accused of favoring this banker while managing censorship over political rivals. This scandal has cast a shadow on Lula as well.
The banker, Vorcaro, is accused of a massive R$16.7 billion financial fraud, and Justice Moraes is being scrutinized for his ties to the case. Reports suggest that Moraes’ wife secured a lucrative contract from Vorcaro, and evidence hints at their communication prior to his arrest. Despite not being appointed to the court by Lula, Moraes is considered a leftist ally for his actions taken against Bolsonaro.
In a twist, STF judge Flávio Dino, a close Lula ally, who was previously his Minister of Justice, sought to pause the investigation into Moraes’ involvement, effectively delaying any consequences until after the election.
This corruption perception has eroded public trust and undermined Lula’s re-election odds, which had initially appeared favorable. In this light, Lula’s move to ban betting seems targeted at reclaiming voter support by addressing a predatory sector often harming vulnerable families. He recently described the betting industry as a cancer that needed to be eliminated.
“We won’t let betting companies profit off Brazilian families,” declared Lula.
Still, it’s unclear whether the betting ban will last beyond its temporary 120-day period. “While it could have some impact, the content of the Provisional Measure is likely to change,” says Lorrana Melo, an industry expert, who notes that Congress has already hinted at amendments. The gambling lobby is particularly strong, and many football clubs rely on betting partnerships.
As Lula prepared to enforce this ban, Flamengo, Brazil’s biggest club, criticized it by highlighting potential financial risks to women’s and youth football — ironically, the revenues they refer to stem from the very losses of their fans.
The situation surrounding this ban has its nuances. Just a few years ago, Lula’s party voted against settling limits on online gambling games, which shows a possible hypocrisy now that they’re calling for a ban. Whether this measure endures is uncertain and will depend largely on Congress’s actions within the next 120 days, leaving the question of Lula’s presidency looming over the decision.
