More Republicans Is warning Kamala Harris being elected president could lead to World War III. Republican Further assertion President Trump will eliminate that threat.
Their so-calledinferenceThe idea is that if Trump had won in 2020, the Gaza war would never have started and the Ukraine conflict would have been resolved.
People are entitled to their opinions, regardless of reality. But the facts are different.
Those who believe a world war is possible make the following claims: China is threatening China is embarking on a massive military buildup and strengthening its economic power. President Xi Jinping He reportedly served in the military “Preparing for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027”
Vladimir Putin threatened If we allow Ukraine to use Western systems to strike deep into Russia or intervene in the fighting in any way, we cannot use nuclear weapons against NATO. The war in Gaza is Expansion to LebanonIran The rise of malicious terrorists and cyber activities.
That's all true, but it requires deeper investigation.
The use of thermonuclear weapons in world wars cannot be ignored. 1,000 times more powerful Rather than nuclear weapons, large parts of American, European and Russian societies would be wiped out. leader The United States, Russia and China have maintained that a nuclear war should never happen and can never be won.
Deterrence would work because there is a risk that a global war would escalate into nuclear war.ChinaChina has the thousands of ships and boats and hundreds of thousands of soldiers needed to launch a direct amphibious attack on Taiwan by 2027. But it also has non-military options, from an economic blockade to regime change from within.
Despite Putin's threats, Russia does not have the capability to launch a conventional attack in the West against NATO, which has overwhelming military power in all areas except tactical nuclear weapons. Advantages over Russia.
Five other wars Previous wars in the Middle East, such as those in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, did not have a global ramifications. Iran's malicious activities, particularly cyber attacks, are also not new.
Therefore, any objective, fact-based analysis will provide no evidence that a world war is imminent, no matter how dangerous the situation may appear on the surface.
War due to accident or miscalculation is another matter.March of FollyThe closest the US and the USSR came to nuclear war was Cuban Missile Crisis In 1962, a relatively unknown NATO exercise A skilled shooter It almost led to disaster in 1983, when Moscow mistakenly thought that NATO would launch a preemptive attack, which it did not.
History is a harsh judgement for those who argue that the Gaza war and the invasion of Ukraine would not have happened if Trump had a second term. Disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal This is offered as evidence to convince people that the Biden administration would tolerate or appease any aggressive actions by Hamas and Russia.
The Trump administration Doha Agreement In 2019, the Taliban pledged to withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021, provided they did not attack Americans. The Afghan government was not present. President Trump Complete US withdrawal They withdrew from Afghanistan in December 2020. That order was not followed. Invitation to the Taliban I will be joining him at Camp David on September 11, 2019.
This agreement Considered “unstable” The remarks by National Security Adviser John Bolton came after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Refused to signHe appointed negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad to the task.
Even if Trump had been president, the US would have withdrawn, and that would have been a disaster, but it could have happened with Trump.
One of the accomplishments of the Trump administration is The Abraham AccordsThis brought Israel and the Gulf states closer together and ultimately led to mutual recognition with Saudi Arabia. Iran could not allow that to happen. October 7and confirmed that recognition is pending.
It is highly likely that Putin would have invaded Ukraine whether Trump was president or not. Expected Within days they will take control of Kiev and Ukraine, no matter who the US president is.
History and facts are important, so perhaps it’s premature to cry “ready, fire, aim!” Before predicting an impending world war, let’s take a closer look.
Harlan K. UllmanHe is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and lead author of “Shock and Awe” Military Doctrine. His twelfth book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How a Massive Disruption Attack Became a Looming Existential Crisis for a Divided Nation and the Entire World,” is available on Amazon.
