Customs duties are not as high as Americans expect
If the details of Donald Trump's tariff plan are finally revealed, they are almost certain that they will be lower than most Americans.
According to a recent public opinion poll conducted by the Economist of the University of Texas, the University of California, and the University of Chicago Americans anticipate the customs duties for all trading partners.The tax was 35 % from Canada and 42 % for Mexico. Europe is expected to face a 35 % tariff, and products from other regions in the world (excluding China) are expected to be 39 % of tariffs.
these are What Trump proposed is far beyond Currently, the White House and the Ministry of Finance officials are larger than the tariff fees being considered. This suggests that the warning that Trump's tariff policy raises the price of consumers in the United States without mercy in the media story has a distorted effect on the expectations of the Americans. 。 Americans believe that Trump must be considering very high tariffs because Trump has attracted a lot of attention from the report of the facility.
In reality, Trump has been considering imposing 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico since February 1. If they don't cooperate with us To prevent Chinese products, illegal drugs, and illegal foreigners from entering our country. The demand is not only completely reasonable, but it is relatively easy to comply with it, so customs duties may not be imposed at all. Or, if tariffs are imposed, they may be short -lived.
In his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Committee this week, Trump Candidates of Trump Howard Rutonic It seems that the tariffs between Mexico and Canada are likely to be imposed.
“So this is an independent tariff for making actions from Mexico and taking action from Canada,” Lutonic. “And, as far as I know, they are acting quickly, and there is no tariff if they do it.”
Trump is not bluff
There is still a possibility that Mexico or Canada will be decided Test Trump's determination by resisting his demands。 Perhaps the chance is probably low after Trump's willingness to impose 25 % to 50 % of Colombia, which has refused to accept its own expelled citizens. Trump does not bluff about tariffs. It's very stupid when Mexico and Canada call hands.
The Bank of America's global economics team has recently explained the question of whether Trump will impose tariffs. “Schledinger tariff”:
In 1935, Austrian physicist Irwin Schledinger designed a famous hypothesis experiment for Schrodinger cat experiments. In a nutshell, the experiment is that if you put a cat and a cat (radioactive atom) in a box and put it, you don't know if the cat is dead or alive until you open the box. The cat was dead and alive in a way.
Schrodinger experiments are similar to the two -division we found today because of the possibility of US tariffs on Canada and Mexico products. Customs duties live in the sense that President Trump is trying to impose them (recently 25 % blanket tariffs imposed on February 1). However, tariffs have died in the sense that President Trump has not yet imposed them (tariffs should have been on the first day). There is also a possibility of temporary tariffs (as Colombia recently discovered).
What we expect is that both Mexico and Canada decide it. It's not worth looking inside the box。 It is never knowing that the United States agrees to reduce borders, enforce China's trade management, and help crack down on drug smuggling.
However, even if it is wrong, customs duties are lower than those that suggest that the opinion polls are expected. As a result, a rescue rally may occur if there is an actual tariff level. The price will rise It may be given to consumers -much lower than expected.
TariffmagedDon has not come
According to the survey, some companies hope that they will raise prices in the event of a tariff, but the most common expectations among managers are. Avoid tariffs by procuring products from places that are not attacked by higher tariffs。 The reaction will be lighter for Americans to impose tariffs and more difficult for countries that are encouraged by tariffs.
The same applies Most tariffs in other countries exported to Europe and the United States。 The survey indicates that the Americans are expecting a tariff of 10 % or 20 % of tariff rates of tariffs 2 to 3 to 4 times.
One exception here is China. He said that Trump might be raised 60 % high tariff。 Opinion polls indicate that Americans expect 50 % of the average tariff. Therefore, in that case, expectations are lower than Trump indicated. But we believe it is likely Chinese tariffs gradually become step -by -step over timeSince it starts at a level lower than 60 %, the prediction may still be beyond the short term.
Created a relentless fear in the facility media over tariffs. Expectations for TariffMaggedon for imports。 The reality may be much less burdensome for US households and companies. This can mean that the economy is even better than people expect it.
