A recent report in The Atlantic and an analysis by scholars at the Manhattan Institute suggest that a surge in American families with young children leaving cities may be due to progressive urban policies.
Derek Thompson of The Atlantic Take aim Last week, he echoed vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance’s pro-birth commentary, but acknowledged that progressives have a “family issue” that has nothing to do with individual decisions not to have children and everything to do with the family policies of big Democratic cities and politicians.
The under-five population is declining twice as fast in large urban counties compared to the rest of the country, the report said. New analysis of census data This is according to Conor O’Brien, a policy analyst at the Economic Innovation Group think tank.
Between 2020 and 2023, the number of juveniles fell by nearly 20% in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx, while counties covering all or large portions of Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minneapolis and St. Louis saw double-digit percentage point declines, according to data reported by The Atlantic.
A woman pushes a stroller while walking along the boardwalk in Long Beach, New York on November 13, 2019. (Getty Images)
“These places should be touts for what the modern progressive movement can accomplish, unencumbered by interventionist conservatism at the local and state levels,” The Atlantic said in an article. “If progressives want to sell their case to the public, they should be able to say, ‘Vote for us, and we’ll make America more like Oakland, Brooklyn, or the suburbs of Detroit.’ If they can’t make that case, then that’s a problem.”
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O’Brien’s census analysis shows that large urban counties are losing their under-5 populations twice as fast as other counties, and in the next 20 years, some counties, including Manhattan, Brooklyn, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco, are projected to see a 50% decline in their under-5 populations.
After the 2008 financial crisis, multiracial families left cities while younger, higher-income, college-educated white people moved into them, a trend that has only worsened since the COVID-19 pandemic, The Atlantic reported. Additionally, the number of women under 40 who have never had a child doubled between the early 1980s and the 2020s.
But this data can’t just be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic or falling birth rates, The Atlantic reports, arguing that cities in Republican-leaning states have been more effective at building housing and keeping child care inflation in check than cities in Democratic-leaning states.
“I’m very concerned about the vicious cycle of family exodus,” O’Brien told The Atlantic. “A city’s toddler population declining by 10 to 20 percent over a few years could trigger political upheaval. Almost overnight, there are fewer parents left to fight for better schools, local playgrounds, and other mundane amenities that families care about.”
New York City skyline. (Fox News Photo/Joshua Cummins)
Robert Verbruggen, a research fellow at the Manhattan Institute, told Fox News Digital that the data Similar reports A Manhattan Institute study last year concluded that childlessness is on the rise in America’s biggest cities, a trend that Verbruggen said is especially notable because American cities already had relatively few children before the current population exodus.
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“Children and parents are losing access to some of the most economically and socially vibrant places in the country, and as a result, they are losing access to the basic human experience of being with their children,” Verbruggen said. “Cities certainly have no control over some of the causes of this phenomenon.”
“For example, with the rise of telecommuting, fewer people are required to live in a big city as a condition of employment, and many workers are now able to get jobs in big cities. and “It’s a big house with a garden,” he added.
But Verbruggen said there is a lot the city can do to attract families.
“First, living in the nation’s most prosperous metropolitan areas is simply too expensive, even for people who love city life and don’t mind density,” he said. “The cost of living is strongly correlated with a family’s decision to relocate.”
Children at the playground. (iStock)
Housing is a major indicator of affordability and one of the main reasons people move. Having a newer, better, or bigger house or apartment is According to Census data. But despite this, the percentage of movers reporting upgrading their housing units fell.
The US economy The danger of rising housing prices It is becoming harder for younger generations to own a home. Mortgage interest rates and expensive construction materials.
Housing prices New record Home prices soared in May amid a continuing housing shortage. According to The Atlantic, cities in Republican-leaning states are currently building more housing than cities in Democratic-leaning states. High home prices drive up the costs of local services like child care and create a shortage of willing workers for low wages.
“Cities need to build more housing, including family housing, to lower housing prices,” Verbruggen said. “They also need to curb sprawl, give families more educational options, and make public areas more accessible to children.”
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