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Analyst Predicts BTC Demand Will Exceed Supply by Over 6 Times in 2025 After Halving

Analyst Predicts BTC Demand Will Exceed Supply by Over 6 Times in 2025 After Halving

Bitcoin Shows Signs of Potential Breakout Amidst Steady Prices

Bitcoin seems to have leveled off at around $108,716, but there are indicators suggesting a possible breakout. Both retail and institutional investors are ramping up their accumulation.

On August 29, André Dragosch, a European research director at Bitwise, noted that Bitcoin is gaining traction. He mentioned that in just July and August, 28 new Bitcoin financing companies were launched, leading to an influx of over 140,000 BTC into company holdings.

This amount is roughly equivalent to what is mined in a year—about 164,000 BTC—indicating that institutional demand is quickly absorbing supply, often faster than it can be produced.

A chart from Bitwise depicts a sharp increase, showing that companies are beginning to see Bitcoin as a reserve asset, akin to the strategy adopted by Michael Saylor.

Dragosch remarked that Bitcoin is becoming a popular topic among analysts, and he pointed out a sentiment that in 2025, Bitcoin could reach a plateau due to past cycle patterns. But he feels this perspective might neglect the current scale of institutional demand.

His data shows that as of August 29, institutional buying has claimed over 690,000 BTC, while new supply sits at over 109,000—essentially a demand that is about 6.3 times the supply. Dragosch even described that demand might be nearly seven times the supply, highlighting a significant imbalance that makes historical cycle comparisons somewhat tricky. For today’s investors, the dynamics of supply driven by demand seem less critical, given the shift towards institutional adoption.

Also, just two days prior on August 27, Dragosch pointed out that retail purchases are another significant factor driving demand. Accumulation rates across Bitcoin wallet groups, whether small or large holders, have reached their highest since April. He suggested that investors are “accumulating mercilessly.”

The accompanying Bitwise chart illustrates a noticeable jump in accumulation among wallet groups, reflecting that retail buying appears to be merging with institutional activity. Historically, when various groups synchronize their accumulation efforts, it has often led to substantial upward trends, which is noteworthy for current bullish sentiments.

Nevertheless, despite these encouraging trends, Bitcoin’s price remains largely unchanged at $108,716 over the last 24 hours. The market seems to be waiting for a clearer stimulus.

Price Analysis Highlights

(All times in UTC)

  • From August 30 at 15:00 UTC to August 31 at 14:00 UTC, Bitcoin traded within a narrow $1,285 range, reaching a peak of $109,518.96 before pulling back.
  • The resistance level held firm at approximately $109,500, with volume increases of 6,077 BTC.
  • An observed volume spike of 8,272 BTC at 13:00 UTC indicated significant institutional participation at these levels.
  • At the end of the analysis period, BTC climbed from $108,340.08 to $108,398.41 in two phases, surpassing a resistance level of around $108,260 to $108,350.
  • Afterward, there were profit-taking pullbacks within the $108,320-$108,360 range, but buying continued with prices exceeding $108,380.
  • Volatility has been rising since a sharp drop from $124,500 earlier in August.
  • BTC remains below the $110,500 resistance, with analysts suggesting that a psychological level around $100,000 could still be tested.
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