Bitcoin’s Recent Price Movements and Analysts’ Predictions
Bitcoin made an effort to bounce back from its lows in March during April, temporarily exceeding $79,000. However, skepticism surrounds this rebound. Some analysts see it merely as a mid-bear market rally, potentially preceding a more significant downturn.
One such analyst, who had previously forecast a peak in July 2025, is now assessing how much further Bitcoin might need to drop to reach its true bottom.
Using Historical Data to Predict Bitcoin’s Bottom
Cryptocurrency analyst Kira initially projected a cycle high of $121,362 for June 2025. Remarkably, this estimate was made months before Bitcoin achieved an all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025, only missing the mark by roughly 3.9%. Now, Kira is applying a similar model but to predict potential declines.
The crux of this analysis hinges on the idea that each successive Bitcoin market cycle tends to exhibit a smaller multiple compared to the previous cycle’s low, indicating the asset’s maturity. Data from five cycles reveals a decrease in high-to-low multiples, starting from 15.50x in the first cycle down to 4.47x in the fourth cycle, the latter featuring a peak of $69,800 followed by a low of $15,600.
By employing the same reduction ratio, Kira estimates the current cycle’s multiple at 3.25x. This suggests a base target floor of $38,800 if Bitcoin’s peak of $126,100 is halved.
To add some flexibility, two higher scenarios of $40,740 and $42,680 are introduced to account for a 5% variance. Still, even at the top end, Bitcoin would remain significantly below the $60,000 level mentioned by some market participants as the correction’s potential bottom.
At present, Bitcoin is trading around $78,015, meaning it would require a nearly 45% decline to hit $42,680 or close to a 50% drop to reach $38,800.
Exploring Symmetrical Patterns
Kira’s predictions find some support from analyst CryptoBullet, who looks at the bottoming process from a symmetry perspective.
CryptoBullet’s analysis characterizes the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott wave advance starting in late 2022, culminating with the fifth wave around the $126,000 peak in October 2025. The following correction, designated as a WXY correction structure, forecasts the final leg of the Y wave dropping under $50,000, potentially landing near $45,000.
The analyst posits that the three-year price increase from November 2022 to 2025’s peak can’t logically revert in just one year. Instead, the ongoing bearish trend is expected to extend until late 2026 before a complete bottom structure materializes.
