Over the past two weeks, Fumio Kishida has been mentioned as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize and praised for his speech to Congress in which he urged the United States not to be isolated.
But since returning to Tokyo after a successful summit with Joe Biden, Japan’s prime minister has faced domestic political headwinds, and this weekend could be the beginning of the end for his administration.
Kishida, who took office at the end of 2021 promising a “new capitalism”, a stronger Japan on the international stage and a solution to the demographic crisis, will be the prime minister as voters head to the polls in three by-elections on Sunday. is facing its toughest test yet. .
The Liberal Democratic Party, which he leads, has been unable to find candidates in two constituencies where incumbent LDP incumbents were tainted by scandals, and is pinning its hopes on Shimane 1st Ward.
The rural constituency on the Sea of Japan coast is seen as a conservative stronghold, but the growing speculation that Mr. Kishida could lose his seat underscores the scale of the problems he faces. ing.
Despite his accomplishments in captivating American audiences and thereby skyrocketing his approval ratings, Mr. Kishida has little else to endear himself or his party to Japanese voters.
The yen has fallen sharply against the dollar, the cost of living crisis shows little sign of abating, and there are questions about how Japan will finance policies to deal with its declining birthrate and its biggest post-war military buildup. .
But the longest shadow has been cast by the funding scandal, which was first reported last year and has become the focus of public anger as questions grow over Mr. Kishida’s ability to lead the Liberal Democratic Party to victory in the upcoming lower house election. There is.
The voting deadline is more than a year away, but the scandal in which 85 Liberal Democratic Party members were found to have siphoned off unreported profits from ticket sales to party rallies into a slush fund has given Kishida no room for maneuver. .
Rather, the defeat in Shimane prefecture, in addition to ensuring the victory of a non-Liberal Democratic Party candidate in Sunday’s other by-election, also means that the party will hold a presidential election in September, with the winner automatically This could pose an early challenge to his leadership when he becomes prime minister.
On the other hand, if Mr. Kishida wins the by-election, he may gain enough momentum to call a snap election this summer.
But days before the Shimane prefecture vote, Japanese media reported that the Liberal Democratic Party candidate, a former Ministry of Finance official, was lagging behind his rivals from the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.
Analysts say this reflects widespread dissatisfaction with Kishida’s government, whose approval rating has plummeted to a record low, well below 30%, as Japan’s government tries to ride the election wave. It is said that it is growing.
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“If the Liberal Democratic Party loses Shimane… Mr. Kishida will likely be exposed to pressure from within the party in a way he has not yet experienced since winning the leadership election.” [in September 2021]” said James Brady, vice president of advisory firm Teneo.
“The party’s response to the slush fund issue has consistently failed to convince the public, and there is little reason to think the planned reforms will change that trend.”
Attempts to repair the damage caused by the funding scandal and promises to revise political financing laws have not allayed media criticism, with one newspaper calling Kishida’s response “totally unacceptable.”
While 39 Liberal Democratic Party members were punished, Kishida escaped sanctions despite evidence that his own faction had also underreported ticket sales. This is a clear double standard and risks creating a power struggle between factions that could lead to bloodshed for Mr. Kishida as he attempts to maintain his party’s support as LDP president. This fall.
Mr. Kishida may have been relieved to hear last week that U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell suggested that he should share the Nobel Peace Prize with South Korean President Yun Seok-yew in recognition of efforts to address the two countries’ bitter history. . We will leave behind a legacy and present a united front against nuclear-armed North Korea.
But even as he cast a cautious eye on the possible return of President Donald Trump and implored the US to overcome its “self-doubt” in global leadership, his focus remains on the storm that awaits in Japan. Ta.
He received cheers as the second Japanese leader to speak at a joint session of both houses of Congress, the first being Shinzo Abe. Mr. Kishida could not resist a mild rebuke of a member of parliament from his home country. He said, “I have never received such great applause in the Japanese Diet.” [Japan’s version of congress]”
