Ann Selzer denies claims she significantly rigged Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points and Donald Trump won by a whopping 13 points did.
Remarks during discussion At Iowa Press With moderator Kay Henderson, Gazette's Des Moines Bureau Chief Erin Murphy and Iowa Public Radio's Catalina Sosta said they still can't determine exactly why Selzer said this was wrong.
“I'm not here to give you any news. If you're expecting me to understand exactly why things went wrong, that's not the case. It keeps me awake in the middle of the night. So I think we might want to check this out, because it would be very strange if that happened,” she said. “But we looked at everything. In an unprecedented push for transparency, the Des Moines Register put the crosstabs, wait system, and my analysis online, and it was pretty complete, so I updated it. I didn't have to. I don't know. Should I have known? Yes, I would have.”
Selzer said he takes his position as a pollster very seriously and did not intentionally rig the polls on behalf of his campaign, which would amount to criminal election interference.
“Let's just deal with this allegation because I'm perplexed as to what motive anyone thinks I had in responding to a poll like this. I don't know. And I don't know. takes the allegations very seriously. I'm saying it's election interference, it's a crime. So the idea that I intentionally set up to have this reaction, even though I've never done it before and I've had plenty of opportunities to do it. It’s not my ethics,” Selzer said.
“But to suggest without any evidence that I was in collusion with someone or that I was taking money from someone, that's all kind of, they're accusing me of a crime. Other than that, it's hard to focus on it too much,'' she added.
In preparation for election day, des moines register public opinion poll carried out The book, written by Ann Selzer, sent shockwaves through the political world by showing that Trump easily won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but fell short of Kamala Harris by three points. caused it. Given Selzer's reputation for being the “gold standard” in political polling, experts and various commentators say the poll is fundamentally different from other polls showing President Trump in the lead. Despite the divergence, we considered this a potentially ominous sign for President Trump's electoral prospects and adjusted our models and forecasts as a result. In Iowa, he was up to eight points behind Harris.
When election day came, Trump not only won the state, but defeated Harris by 13 points, shattering Selzer's long-held reputation.
In the editorial of des moines register released A few weeks after the election, Selzer announced he was withdrawing from the poll campaign, which he had been planning for more than a year.
“More than a year ago, I notified the Registrar that I would not renew my contract when it expires in 2024 at the latest election audit as I move on to other businesses and opportunities,” she wrote.
“Would we have wanted to make this announcement after the final vote with Election Day results? Of course. It's ironic that it's quite the opposite. I am proud of the work I have done for the Star, Bloomberg News, and other public and private organizations interested in elections. They have been great clients and have been happy with my work.” she added.
Selzer said he thought “the polls looked good” after more than 30 years of polling. earned Nate Silver's analysis of polling organizations' accuracy performance gives them an A+ rating.
“My integrity means a lot to me. For those who have questioned this, there is no dissuasion. For those who know me well, my friends, colleagues, clients, “I am grateful for the messages and calls of support that remind me that it is my commitment to truth and accuracy, both in my professional and personal relationships, that has drawn me to it,” she concluded. .
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