ARLINGTON, Texas — There were some exciting moments in the first two months of the season that made it easy to imagine Anthony Volpe playing in the All-Star Game.
He was like a great point guard, filling the columns on his way to baseball’s version of a triple-double, and making a consistent impact hitting, running the bases and defending. Through June 5, Juan Soto was ranked first in major league wins above replacement (Fangraphs), Aaron Judge was second and Volpe was eighth.
Volpe was a fitting supporting actor to two big stars and was clearly the team’s third-best player.
But since then, Volpe’s WAR is the sixth-worst. Alex Verdugo’s is almost as bad, at ninth. Verdugo, too, offers a quality and diverse skill set. Their simultaneous declines were due to a defensive error in the 27th out of Sunday’s game that would have put the Yankees ahead of the Orioles and into the break in first place in the AL East. But their error sealed the blowout.
Verdugo, who finished the first half face down in the left field seats at Camden Yards, is just a space-filler, figuratively and literally. He’ll almost certainly be one-and-done in pinstripes in a season where he can walk. But Volpe is expected to be a centerpiece. And he’s still the Yankees’ third-best player. But that brings more questions, especially how good will he be?
Would it matter to the Yankees if their third-best player was, say, the 10th best shortstop in the major leagues? Or even the 15th?
Remember, after all that good spring training and early season, including his 22-game hitting streak in May, there were doubts about whether he could follow a Bobby Witt Jr.-like trajectory — from a promising but flawed freshman season to stardom in his second year and even more so in his third.
But that hasn’t happened. Volpe was posting the same troubling .666 OPS at the end of this season that he finished last season with. In his second season, Volpe has traded power for batting average, although his .171 batting average since June 6th is the third-worst among 190 players with at least 100 plate appearances in that span, with zero home runs. This highlights that he is prone to slumps, and not just for a few days at a time. Volpe is fast, but he’s not running much, going from 15 of 15 stolen bases early in his career to 24 of 33 here in the Yankees’ only threat until Jon Berti got healthy.
Volpe is durable (he leads the majors in defensive innings played), strong defensively despite Sunday’s fumble, and beloved within the organization for his work ethic and team-first attitude. Manager Aaron Boone has always pointed out that Volpe is only 23, so he certainly has time to improve. But he is 14 months younger than Witt, who is also an AL MVP candidate along with Judge, Soto and Gunnar Henderson.
Both Witt and Henderson have appeared in the All-Star Game, as have fellow 23-year-old shortstops C.J. Abrams and Ellie de la Cruz, and Jackson Merrill, who moved from shortstop to center field in his rookie season at age 21 and will likely return to shortstop as soon as next season.
Is Volpe better today or tomorrow than anyone in this group? What about Zach Neto, Sedanne Rafaela, Ezequiel Tovar or Masin Winn, all of whom are in their age-23 or younger seasons? What about older shortstops like O’Neil Cruz or Jeremy Peña? What about established stars like Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Willy Adames or Kim Ha-seong?
What about Josh Smith, who the Yankees acquired in the ill-fated Joey Gallo trade in July 2021 and is developing into a star for the Rangers, filling the shortstop hole when Seager was injured? What about Bryson Stott, Joey Ortiz or Jordan Westberg, players who have fallen out of the shortstop position but could probably still play there?
Remember, all of this is comparative. Volpe is a talented young player. I don’t doubt his work ethic gives him room to grow. But where does he rank among his peers? The Orioles may have had four better shortstops than Volpe in that span. Henderson was the 12th pick in the 2019 draft, ahead of Volpe. Westberg, an All-Star, moved from shortstop and has excelled at second and third base. Ortiz has been a breakout third baseman in Milwaukee alongside Adames, and will likely take Adames’ spot next season when he retires. And Jackson-Holiday, who struggled in his first game earlier this year, may still be better than them all.
In fact, former Yankees farm player turned shortstop turned all-around player for the Orioles, Jorge Mateo, won’t be all that different from Volpe in 2024.
Plus, Ortiz was good enough to help the Orioles acquire AL All-Star starter Corbin Burnes. Remember when the Yankees didn’t use Volpe to get Luis Castillo? Will they regret it, given the dominoes that followed to fill the hole when the Yankees decided to sign Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162 million contract?
This is the era of great shortstops, with so many redundancies that some are leaving the position, and how good will the Yankees be in 2024 and beyond without Volpe near the front of that group?
