Anticipation and Controversy in the 2028 Republican Race
As we look ahead to the 2028 Republican presidential primary, much can change, yet a smear campaign has already taken shape against the GOP’s leading candidate.
Recent polling from the Manhattan Institute identifies Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner among Republican voters, with 37 percent supporting him. Secretary of State Marco Rubio follows with 20 percent, while other noteworthy figures like Donald Trump Jr., Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. lag significantly behind, sitting in the low single digits.
Interestingly, the Manhattan Institute has pointed out that Vance’s lead primarily stems from his strong backing within the ‘MAGA’ coalition, where he holds 49 percent support compared to Rubio’s 16 percent.
Another poll is out with Vance in commanding lead of the 2028 Republican Primary
Vance polls strongest with GOP voters, and takes a decisive victory in head-to-head matchup pic.twitter.com/bM2FkMo7bE
— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) July 28, 2026
Despite Vance’s strong support from the base, there seems to be a coordinated effort among some right-wing advocates of the Iran War to portray him as losing traction with both MAGA supporters and the broader Republican electorate. Their criticisms often arise from Vance’s negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, sometimes initiated at Trump’s suggestion. Ironically, while they profess unwavering support for Trump, they simultaneously label Vance as lacking sound judgment for engaging in these negotiations.
In conversations with figures like Joel Berry from Babylon Bee or Ben Shapiro from Daily Wire, Vance is described as lacking the governability needed for the presidency, with some suggesting he’s antisemitic for pursuing a peaceful resolution with Iran. Others, like Rod Dreher, portray him as too friendly with certain extremist factions.
What’s curious about these criticisms is that the individuals making them often seem unconcerned about the consequences of the war they advocate for, disregarding its negative impact on national stability. They appear uninterested in discussing their objections to Vance honestly, which, from an outside perspective, may stem from a belief that he’s not interventionist enough regarding Israel. It feels as if there’s a never-ending thirst for conflict, and since Vance embodies a step towards de-escalation, he bears the brunt of their disdain rather than Trump.
Weimar Germany?
“If you destroy everything that is, what comes next is never better.”
Sigh. It’s Groundhog Day. Again.
One role of conservative pundits like Boreing, and now Dreher, is to defend the liberal post-war consensus against anyone who dares to acknowledge, and heaven… https://t.co/JeFVnIF7zU
— Adam Johnston (@adamkjohnston) July 27, 2026
Dreher’s influence among conservative thinkers is particularly perplexing. After divorcing his wife and relocating to Hungary, he now expresses concern about the conservative movement’s future if Vance were to become the nominee. He explicitly distances himself from controversial figures like Nick Fuentes while seemingly justifying abandoning his family. Yet, his views are still respected within conservative circles, making him a target for criticism.
Beyond his personal decisions, it’s troubling that Dreher would publicly share private conversations with Vance as part of a smear campaign. Just two years ago, he considered himself a friend, yet now he insinuates that Vance is antisemitic and aligns with extremist groups.
Vance has had the most boring milquetoast take, that being Israel is an ally and should be treated like any other ally such as France or Europe.
THAT is getting him maligned as a “groyper” https://t.co/vF9l3W7IDj
— bumbadum (@bumbadum14) July 27, 2026
It’s hard to imagine Dreher serving as the moral compass for the GOP when he can’t even get his own life in order.
Critiquing Vance for a political misstep can be vital for keeping accountability, akin to how supporters challenge Trump when he wavers on deportation issues. However, this situation appears distinctly different. There’s an evident lack of genuine concern driving these attacks.
The anti-Vance faction seems part of a systematic effort to undermine his political prospects. It’s somewhat amusing how they believe their tactics are undetectable, especially considering they’re not making headway with the base.
.@roddreher has been back in the U.S. for 5 minutes and is airing his private conversations with the VP, while (falsely) claiming that 40% of the people dedicating their youth to public service are “groypers.”
At @americanmoment, we work daily with the staff who Rod slanders and… https://t.co/44Zi3aKMbF
— Nick Solheim (@NickSolheim) July 27, 2026
The polling data from the Manhattan Institute suggests that Vance is a solid candidate for the nomination if he chooses to run. Interestingly, many of the same individuals who contributed to the DeSantis-Trump split in 2024 are now working to pit Vance against Rubio. They have been pushing their anti-Vance narrative for months without success. Fortunately, neither candidate has publicly engaged in this conflict, and the base seems to be overlooking the manufactured tensions.
