Polling Insights for Democratic Presidential Candidates
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are currently the frontrunners among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire.
A recent public opinion poll, released on July 22, indicates that Ocasio-Cortez holds 22 percent of the vote, slightly ahead of Buttigieg at 21 percent. The remaining candidates fall into single digits.
Notably, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has an approval rating of 9%, with Governor Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) following at 8%. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and former Vice President Kamala Harris garner 6% and 5% respectively.
Other potential candidates appear to be struggling more. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) received a mere 2%, while Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL) managed only 1%.
This poll also reveals some interesting trends since October 2025. Ocasio-Cortez’s support has surged from 14 percent to the current 22 percent.
Conversely, some candidates are experiencing a decline in favor. Kamala Harris’s approval rating has decreased dramatically from 11% to 5%, and Newsom has seen his support cut in half, dropping from 15% to 8%.
It’s likely disappointing for Newsom, who has been campaigning for three years. Ironically, as his recognition grows, his numbers seem to falter.
The significance of New Hampshire in the upcoming 2028 Democratic primary remains uncertain. Traditionally, it has been one of the first primary states but was somewhat pushed aside for the 2024 cycle in favor of South Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan, following critiques about its predominantly white voter base exerting undue influence.
No date has yet been set for the 2028 Democratic primary, leaving some ambiguity over New Hampshire’s role in the process. My guess? It might find itself sidelined again.
According to RealClearPolitics, national polls suggest Kamala Harris leads with a remarkable 27.9 percent, outpacing Newsom, who stands at 16.6 percent.
From my perspective, it might be challenging for Democrats to overlook Harris’s bid for the presidency. The debate seems to hinge on whether she is given a “fair shot.” In 2024, the delay in recognizing Biden’s vulnerabilities may have cost her that opportunity.
And let’s face it, Democrats appear quite focused on identity politics. Harris ticks several key boxes—she’s a black woman and, while some might hesitate to say it, she can be seen as a convenient figure in some circles.
In essence, South Carolina’s prominence likely stems from its substantial black population, emphasizing the party’s need to engage with black voters, particularly black women, in the 2028 elections.
