At the beginning of March, I highlighted the seasons of the month, one of which was the weakness of the circle. Despite all the confusion, USD/JPY had about 200 pips that month. Even AUD/JPY made profits this month.
The other was oil, which started soft, but could be acquired that month, and the strength of the crude oil continues until June. Yesterday there was a great benefit in the indication that it wasn't producing as much as the US wanted/feared.
Changing the page to April is an optimistic month despite the uncertainty in the air. Now I've always emphasized that the season is one piece of the toolkit and is a generally modest driver. The foundations dominate, and Trump's April intentions are far more important than history.
Here are some trends:
1) The strength of the Australian Dollar
The theme of mood is risk appetite, and although the USD correlation with “risk trading” is currently being disrupted, AUD/JPY also has strength.
2) Cable gain
Over the past 21 years, Cable has won 17 times in April, with the exception last year. It was by far the best month for Cable, and the UK appears to have shunned Trump's rage. Interestingly, former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was appearing on CNBC today, talking about using a lucrative deal with the UK to drive wedges in Europe.
3) Stock market profits
April is the best month for most global equity indexes, and the MSCI World Index has only declined twice in April in the past decade. In particular, last year was the only month of 11 months that was negative for the S&P 500, so it kept the trends from last year. If we excavate a little more, the best time is from April 5th to 18th.
4) Weakness of USD/CAD
Everyday USDCAD
If the US becomes easier with tariffs, USD/CAD could become a soft spot. The pair is like a revaled transaction on risk assets and products, all positive in April. Technically there is a lower high in a set that can set a reduction to 1.40. Of course, it all depends on what happens tomorrow.
