Lisa Erickson, senior vice president at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, analyzes stock trends, the job market and potential “signs of further deterioration.”
April’s jobs report is expected to show that the U.S. labor market cooled last month, but that employment remains strong despite high interest rates and chronic inflation.
Department of Labor April salary reportThe report, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, shows job numbers rose by 243,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%, according to the median estimate of LSEG economists. It is expected that this will show that
This is down from the 303,000 increase in March, but still higher than the average monthly increase of 231,000 recorded over the past 12 months.
EY senior economist Lydia Boussall said: “Job creation should remain strong, but April’s jobs report shows a cooling in the labor market and job growth is likely to moderate to some extent.” .
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The Labor Department’s April payroll report is expected to show employment rose by 243,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%, according to the median estimate of LSEG economists. (Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via / Getty Images)
of federal reserve The report will be closely watched for evidence that the labor market is finally softening after months of surprisingly strong job growth as policymakers assess when to start cutting interest rates. ing. Officials have suggested that rapid wage growth, a product of a strong labor market, contributed to the inflation crisis that has ravaged the wallets of millions of Americans over the past few years.
US wages are falling at an ‘alarming’ pace, they actually say
Slower job growth and further slowing in wage growth could be welcome signs for the Fed, which indicated Wednesday it would remain in wait-and-see mode until officials are confident inflation is under control. did.
“If there is indeed a path where inflation turns out to be more persistent than expected, where the labor market remains strong but inflation is flat, and we are not gaining more confidence, then “There will be a good case for policy to maintain policy and halt rate cuts,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters this week.
Average hourly wages, a key measure of inflation, are expected to increase by 0.3% in the month and 4% from the same period a year ago. But Bank of America analysts say wage increases could be faster than expected as a result of California’s new law that increases the minimum wage for fast food workers by $20 an hour from $4 an hour. I predict that.
Bank of America said in an analyst note this week that if the forecast is correct, “it should maintain expectations for a long-term rise in policy rates.” “If wage growth accelerates, even if driven by a temporary minimum wage hike for fast-food workers in California, the Fed will seek more data, and for the time being, it will be more likely to decide on a longer-term policy stance.” may support the increase.”
Why are groceries still so expensive?
The labor market has remained historically tight over the past year, contrary to economists’ predictions of an economic slowdown. Economists say the economy is starting to slow from last year’s breakneck pace but is still far from breaking through.
| ticker | safety | last | change | change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Me: DJI | Dow Jones Average | 38063.3 | +160.01 | +0.42% |
| I:Comp | Nasdaq Composite Index | 15734.312684 | +128.83 | +0.83% |
| SP500 | S&P500 | 5038.82 | +20.43 | +0.41% |
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“The labor market remains a source of resiliency for the U.S. economy, even as we return to normalcy after the extremely strained conditions following the pandemic,” Boussall said. “Looking ahead, we expect labor market conditions to soften further due to a cooling in employment, localized layoffs, and continued modest wage growth.”
