Welcome to The Drain Pipe, your weekly look into the happenings of Washington.
Are we at a point where we should consider the “swing voter” an endangered species?
Back when I volunteered as a precinct captain in Northern Virginia for the 2024 presidential election, I encountered all sorts of voters. Many were genuinely fearful of the impact the Biden-Harris administration was having on the country, while others held out hope that Trump could turn things around. It’s been a little while since I was actively involved in political campaigns—and I’m not looking to jump back in anytime soon—but it seems to me that the sentiment has shifted.
As of October 16, according to the Cook Political Report, Democrats only require three more seats to flip the House, with sixteen Republican seats currently seen as toss-ups. In the Senate, they need just two seats, as six Republican seats are reportedly also toss-ups as of October 6.
This doesn’t necessarily indicate that Americans are “switching sides” as much as it suggests they might be feeling that Trump hasn’t provided the reprieve they were assured.
Data from the Pew Research Center, collected between January 30 and June 18, reveals that the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans dropped by 3% over the past year (from 31% to 28%), while Democrats increased their numbers slightly by 1% (from 28% to 29%). In contrast, those identifying as neither party saw a rise of 3% (from 41% to 44%).
Furthermore, only 65% of Republicans are confident they will vote in the midterms, compared to 72% of Democrats, as indicated by a recent ABC/Post/Ipsos poll published on Saturday. Trump’s approval rating is notably low at just 33%, with 75% of respondents giving the economy negative ratings.
As these polls circulate, Trump is reportedly urging voters to “pretend” he’s “on the ballot.” Sure, much of the inflation issues his administration is now trying to address may stem from policies set by his predecessor. But with the Iran War reportedly costing average American households around $2,000, that’s perhaps a tricky pitch for him to make.
While Democrats continue to illustrate themselves as the party of socialism and political persecution, it’s somewhat straightforward for Republicans to position themselves as the party of common sense. But whether that’ll be enough to secure victory is another question altogether. To really resonate with Americans, especially those in the middle, Republicans need to showcase genuine concern for the common good.
THE EXECUTIVE
Trump plans to hold a political rally every day for the next week across states like Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan. You can find the full schedule elsewhere.
Susie Wiles’ Leadership Under Scrutiny
Will CNN personality Scott Jennings step into the role of White House press secretary soon? What might that reveal about the dynamics in the West Wing?
According to a report from Politico, Katie Zacharia’s brief five-day stint as press secretary ended partly due to Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who reportedly arranged a contentious interview between Zacharia and Sean Hannity.
Her swift hiring and firing could signal some underlying tension within the White House. Last week, four sources informed Politico that Wiles might be on the way out (though Trump was quick to respond, insisting, “Susie is here and she’s gonna be here for a long time.”)
Interestingly, Trump apparently didn’t consult Wiles before bringing Zacharia into the mix, as she had been looking to hire Jennings for the role instead.
The internal rumblings have come amid Trump’s apparent frustration with the work of Wiles’ associates James Blair and Chris LaCivita, strategists focused on midterm elections.
There’s been quiet discontent from some conservatives, who feel that the influence of these operatives has created a leadership gap on significant issues like deportations and vaccine safety. Meanwhile, Wiles’ supporters point to her effective leadership on tariffs and her engagement with artificial intelligence policy.
And, well, it’s worth noting that Wiles has navigated worse PR situations in the past.
Pushback Against Trump’s Diesel Deal
After Trump announced a deal on October 9 allowing Russia to import significant amounts of diesel into U.S. and global markets, he waived the 100% tariff imposed by the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act on the five largest Russian energy importers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose already strained relationship with Trump worsened after Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian diesel refineries, expressed his disappointment over X, reflecting on Graham, its namesake, who passed away suddenly in July.
He noted, “It’s tough without him [Graham]. I appreciate both Democrats and Republicans who supported his bill. That was a significant victory: bipartisan support. Now, it feels wrong to undo all of this. It only assists the Russians and does nothing to stop the war.”
South Carolina Republican Senator Darline Graham, who has taken over her brother’s seat, said she intends to discuss the appropriateness of the waiver with Trump this week, considering it in light of the ongoing conflict and diesel prices.
Responses to Trump’s waiver have highlighted divisions between the Republican establishment and populist factions.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, now a vocal critic of Trump, condemned Trump’s actions aimed at reintroducing Russia into global fuel markets last Friday.
Pence stated, “Putin doesn’t want peace. He wants Ukraine. Enough is enough. President Trump ought to rescind the diesel deal with Russia and fully enforce the Lindsey Graham Act to impose strict sanctions.”
Conversely, Republican Congressman Thomas Massie from Kentucky, who lost in the May primary to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, expressed his support for the waiver, calling the sanctions bill “short-sighted.”
Current diesel prices have averaged $6.32 per barrel, up from $3.64 in 2025, according to AAA estimates.
THE LEGISLATIVE
With Congress adjourned until after the upcoming Election Day, attention turns to the campaign trail.
Midterm Roundup
Here’s a snapshot of races Trump is focusing on this week.
Kansas:
Incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is in a surprisingly competitive race against Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a pastor who has capitalized on ranchers’ opposition to Trump’s beef imports, as reported by the Kansas City Star.
This is quite interesting given Hamilton’s prior call for repentance over climate change, which included the consumption of beef, during a 2020 sermon.
Increasing costs related to diesel and fertilizer may impact votes in traditionally Republican areas.
North Carolina:
The former governor, Roy Cooper, endorsed by Obama, is launching a “Make Stuff Cost Less” campaign. Meanwhile, former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley has criticized Cooper for his record as governor which allegedly led to higher prices.
Cooper has welcomed big companies like Meta and Google to establish data centers, but now advocates for measures ensuring they don’t raise North Carolinians’ energy costs.
A new book by outgoing Republican Senator Thom Tillis criticized Whatley by stating that his election changes were hindered by his defense of Medicaid reforms in Trump’s 2025 Big Beautiful Bill. Recently, the Department of Justice reported a man in North Carolina pleaded guilty to scamming hundreds of thousands from Medicaid.
South Carolina:
Democrat Annie Andrews is presenting herself as a moderate, affirming her support for the Second Amendment and criticizing her party’s handling of border issues to gain support from disillusioned Republican voters.
Andrews labeled Trump’s comment calling her “Annie Trannie” as unpresidential but has generally steered clear of an anti-Trump narrative.
During a primary debate, Senator Darline Graham drew attention when she remarked, “national security is not my thing.”
She did express mild criticism over Trump’s diesel deal with Russia, stating, “I have no affinity for Russia, and I don’t like Putin personally. If oil prices drop, that may be beneficial for our country.”
Iowa:
The contest to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst is between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic State Representative Josh Turek. Turek has attempted to link Hinson to escalating fuel prices.
Hinson responded by labeling Turek as “cosplaying as a conservative” while he has consistently criticized Turek for missing votes in the state legislature.
Democrats’ Plans for Congress
Should Democrats gain control of one or both houses of Congress, they are likely to initiate a series of investigations into Trump’s administration.
Senator Elissa Slotkin’s decision to impeach Trump in 2019 incited backlash from her constituents, who accused her of being a “CIA HACK.” Last weekend, she indicated in an interview at the University of Chicago her intention to dissuade talented conservatives from public service through prosecutions.
She elaborated, “I want to look at cases beyond just the president but also those who supported him. Young people should be deterred from thinking working in the Trump Administration is a good idea.”
Slotkin cited examples of individuals she believes should be held accountable, such as Kristi Noem and Doug Burgum, who she accuses of using taxpayer funds for self-gain.
It raises the question of whether the Senate should be a safe haven for officials who are willing to apply such tactics domestically, having witnessed the CIA employing similar methods abroad.
AI Regulations on the Horizon
This year’s elections in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania show that Americans carry significant concerns about artificial intelligence.
As Congress returns later this year, discussions regarding potential risks from AI threats like cyberattacks and superviruses will be on the agenda.
A new proposal from Anthropic aims to give the federal government the power to stop the release of AI models deemed to pose significant risks, detailed in a report by Politico.
The bill would allow the Commerce Department to seek judicial approval to block submissions, terminating its previous ability to stop such models.
It’s intriguing to see how the bill could result in a model being allowed to cause great harm—like the killing of 49 individuals—if the threshold for action is only breached at 50 deaths. It raises ethical questions about how we treat AI models versus human lives.
THE JUDICIARY
California Election Integrity Lawsuit
As millions prepare to vote, the Trump administration has initiated actions regarding election integrity, but is it too late for impactful changes?
Last Thursday, the DOJ and DHS filed a lawsuit against California, alleging that the state has approximately 20,000 names on its voter rolls that may belong to illegal aliens.
“State-facilitated voter fraud cannot be tolerated in the U.S.,” Attorney General Todd Blanche remarked in a press release. “If a court determines California is guilty, it would undermine the integrity of our electoral system.”
DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin added, “Noncitizens voting in federal elections violate the law. Preliminary findings show several individuals in California may be noncitizens but registered to vote. This situation is unacceptable—every single noncitizen vote dilutes the ballot of an American citizen.”
Governance officials have pledged to fight against election fraud.
California Governor Gavin Newsom responded with a press release denouncing the lawsuit as an unprecedented bid to suppress California voters, especially so close to Election Day.
“This is a desperate ploy by Trump to manipulate his politicized Justice Department to intimidate California voters. The federal government has no jurisdiction over state electoral processes,” Newsom commented, promising that election integrity will remain intact in California.
The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for Central California, which has a composition of predominantly Democratic appointees among its 28 active judges.
Supreme Court Ruling Favors GOP PACs
In a positive development for Republicans on the campaign trail, last Monday the Supreme Court agreed with the NRSC and NRCC’s request to halt a Fourth Circuit ruling limiting favorable advertising rates for political parties.
The challengers were several Democratic nominees from various states, as per Ballotpedia.
POLITICO’s recent polling indicates a noticeable disparity in advertising, with over 70% of respondents observing more ads for Democrats than Republicans this election cycle.
This ruling could enable GOP-aligned PACs to ramp up advertising efforts to attract any remaining undecided voters.
MISCELLANEOUS
French Unrest and Its Implications
Amid continuing unrest in France, rioters set fire to the spire of Limoges’ historic city hall last Saturday, leading to at least 1,800 arrests. Between 550,000 and 800,000 participated in demonstrations throughout the country, reported CBS News.
In response to the arson, Vice President JD Vance expressed prayers for the cessation of violence on X, attributing the unrest to immigration policies.
He criticized Western liberals for importing diversity without considering issues of assimilation, suggesting this is a cautionary tale for Americans regarding the future they may face if similar policies persist.
Conversely, Trump connected the violence to immigration in a recent Truth Social post, urging tighter border controls to regain stability.
However, mainstream media outlets argue that dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living and inadequate school conditions is behind the riots, suggesting a historical pattern where affordability justifies widespread unrest in French society.
This historical context reveals that for over a millennium, France flourished as a center of Christendom until the French Revolution marked a sharp departure from that tradition and led to a legacy of political labels shaped by socio-economic grievances.
