Are the improved 49ers the best team Patrick Mahomes has faced in a Super Bowl?

One of the reasons Jim Kelly went 0-for-4 in the Super Bowl four years in a row was because buffalo bills I couldn’t catch a break. All four teams that lost were among the best teams at the time.

The 1990 Giants had the NFL’s No. 1 defense with Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, allowing just 13.2 points per game. The 1991 Washington Redskins went 14-2 against him. average Joe Gibbs won his third Super Bowl, scoring 16.3 points per game. 1992-1993 dallas cowboys They won back-to-back Super Bowls and ranked in the top five in offense and defense both years.

Winning the Super Bowl is never easy, but sometimes you can fall to 9-7 arizona cardinals And all they’ll say about you in the future is, “Ben Roethlisberger won two Super Bowls.” Kelly wasn’t so lucky.

Now, Patrick Mahomes will play in his fourth Super Bowl on Sunday, but he can’t say he’s lucky. But if Mahomes wins, san francisco 49ers This is his second Super Bowl appearance in five years, and you could say he has won three times.

Is this him and his most formidable opponent? kansas city chiefs Have you ever faced that stretch?

2019 – Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

No one expected what would happen in San Francisco this year, as the 49ers went 10-22 in Kyle Shanahan’s first two seasons as head coach. in fact, No one at ESPN expected them to make the playoffs. And they were projected to win 7.7, but considering how successful they’ve been since then, you might have forgotten.

But since then, the Niners have gotten off to an 8-0 start (including a 51-13 win over Christian McCaffreys). panthers), won a three-way tiebreaker and clinched the NFC’s top seed. packers And the saints. San Francisco’s defense had the seventh-best DVOA of the decade.Despite being 8th in points allowed, they were 1st in net yards per pass attempt allowed and because they had the second-best third-down defense.

Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t miss a game for the first and only time in his career as the 49ers defeated both the Vikings and Packers by 17 points each in the Divisional Round and NFC Championship.

San Francisco’s list is do not have Prior to the Trent Williams trade, they split the backfield between Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida, without a true No. 2 receiver, and with Nick Bosa still only a rookie. There wasn’t. But they had DeForest Buckner and Richard Sherman and were efficient on offense, ranking second in scoring and rushing yards and third in net yards per pass attempt.

In the Super Bowl, Tarvarius Moore intercepted Patrick Mahomes in the red zone with 12 minutes and 5 seconds remaining, giving the 49ers a 20-10 lead. Then it fell apart.

The offense stagnated, the defense allowed 44 yards to Tyreek Hill on third-and-15, and Travis Kelce cut the lead to 20-17 with a 1-yard touchdown, forcing the Kansas City defense to go three-and-out. It didn’t take long for Mahomes, regaining his confidence, to lead another touchdown drive to give the Chiefs the lead. The defense then took advantage when Frank Clark sacked Garoppolo to force a turnover on downs. Damien Williams promptly scored a 38-yard touchdown run for a 31-20 victory.

This amounted to a 21-0 run in five minutes of game time.

The 2019 49ers had a great defense and efficient offense, but when they needed to explosives This offense really showed the difference between Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo, and between Hill and San Francisco’s top weapons at the time.

2020 – Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

If there was ever a Super Bowl where Mahomes would be favored, it would be when Mahomes was a 3-point favorite against an 11-5 NFC wild card who on paper had no advantage in anything other than the run. defense. Why should we worry about run defense, even though the Chiefs weren’t really running the ball much at the time?

But somehow this ended up being like Kansas City and Mahomes. worst In addition to the Super Bowl, their playoff record during this championship period was a 31-9 loss.

Analytics favored the Bucks over traditional statistics. Because it ranks 4th in DVOA, including 3rd place in offense and 5th place in defense. Tampa Bay was number one in run defense by any measure, but Bruce Arians never even challenged the run game, as Tampa Bay ranked 29th in attempts and 28th in rushing yards. Tom Brady, 43, had the second-most passing yards and touchdowns in the NFL, but was not named to the All-Pro or Pro Bowl awards. no votes Awarded Offensive Player of the Year or MVP.

of buccaneers There was one Pro Bowl player on the entire roster, mostly forgotten 31-year-old edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.

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But there were times when the Bucs could definitely catch fire, and Tampa Bay went 15-0 that year, including the playoffs, when they scored at least 25 points. They fell short of 25 points, with 0 wins and 5 losses. If you left Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski alone, there would have been little you could have done to prevent your death. Then, when they added Antonio Brown in November, they took the team to another level.

The Bucks have won their last eight games, including the playoffs, and will need to win every game on the road as an NFC wild card.

One would think that Tampa Bay, an 11-5 wild card, would have to be the worst team Mahomes has faced in the Super Bowl.but They played better in December and January. than Any Teams Mahomes has played against in the playoffs.

2022 – Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Looking back at the 2022 Eagles, Philadelphia had pretty much every advantage you could want against Mahomes and Andy Reid’s team, which could blur the perception of how good the Eagles were before the season. There is sex. Due to DVOA, The Eagles ranked No. 1 against the pass., ranked 3rd in both offense and defense, and 2nd overall. The only good team was the Bills, and Kansas City didn’t even get to play them in the playoffs.

Not only did the Eagles have the best pass defense, they were also a historically efficient and dangerous team in third-and-short, fourth-and-short conversions thanks to the “push-push”: at least 20 out of 20 teams. In terms of forced attempts, Philadelphia’s conversion rate was 68.8% (32 attempts), 11.7 percentage points lower than second place. It wasn’t even close.

It was the second time for the Chiefs.minimum He made just 9 of 12 fourth-down attempts in the NFL.

The Eagles also converted 40 of 59 red zone trips into touchdowns, the third-highest rate in the NFL. The Chiefs were second with 50-of-72 shooting. No team scored more rushing touchdowns than Philadelphia, and they scored eight more than second-place Dallas.

The 2022 Eagles are the best team the Chiefs have faced in the Super Bowl, boasting three Pro Bowl players on the offensive line, two of whom were first-team All-Pros. On the defensive line, Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave started inside, and Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat each had at least 11 sacks off the edge.

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Add to these groups a secondary of Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and CJ Gardner-Johnson, a receiver/tight end unit of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, and a 1,200-yard rusher in Miles Sanders. .

There’s an argument to be made that the Eagles are the most talented team Mahomes has faced in the Super Bowl, but like the 49ers in 2019, they aren’t built to keep up with Mahomes in the fourth quarter.

Philadelphia led 27-21 in the fourth quarter, but Mahomes scored touchdowns on back-to-back drives to take a 35-27 lead, and the Chiefs methodically drove up the field to score the winning field goal. He kicked and scored 38 points. -35 win. Jalen Hurts did his best, but it was something as innocuous as an incomplete pass on third-and-short in the fourth quarter. That led to a 65-yard punt return by Kadarius Toney.it was the difference between losing an edge to the best players in soccer or not.

Best team? perhaps. But they didn’t put up the best fight.

2023 – Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

As it stands, no team the Chiefs have faced in the Super Bowl has nearly the same DVOA as San Francisco’s 39.4%. baltimore ravens We recorded an astonishing figure of 45.5%. For comparison, the Bills were third at 24.1%, and Kansas City was fifth at 17.9%.

If these numbers are meaningless to you, a more clear expression would be: The Niners are really good.

They are 1st in offense, 4th in defense, 3rd in points scored and conceded, 1st in net yards per pass attempt, 4th in yards per carry, 5th in net yards per pass attempt, and turnovers. They were in 6th and 5th place. They were 4th in takeaways, 4th in third down conversions, 1st in red zone offense and 1st in points and yards per drive. The 49ers boast two of the five MVP finalists (Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey), seven All-Pros, and seven All-Pros. other players Who earned All-Pro votes.

The Niners are really good.

But in some ways, San Francisco faces the same problem it faced in 2019 and the same problem the Eagles faced in 2022. That means, on the surface, they appear to be significantly underdogs in the sport’s most important position. No matter what happens with Brock Purdy, right now he’s still a very good passer when he throws the ball downfield.

Almost every QB in the NFL who had a high turnover-worthy play percentage this season was either reserved or benched. The only exception was Geno Smith, who was almost benched.

Purdy led the NFL in many major categories, including passer rating (113), net yards per attempt (8.74), yards per attempt (9.6), QB (72.7), and TD% (7%). , achieved better results than the most recent results. Three games against playoff teams (Ravens in the regular season, Packers and Lions in the playoffs) showed just how bad the Niners were when he faced stiff competition.

Purdy had two touchdowns and five interceptions in those three games (four in a disastrous loss to Baltimore), and San Francisco only narrowly beat the Packers and Lions.

For the 49ers to prove, “Yes, we are the best team Kansas City has faced in the Super Bowl,” the defense shut down Mahomes for four quarters, ran the ball well, took an early lead, and held it. Must. We know how Kyle Shanahan handles holding a lead in the fourth quarter. We know how comfortable Mahomes is with a fourth-quarter playoff loss.

I can’t say where the 49ers rank on this list until they prove themselves in the Super Bowl. Or until the Chiefs prove they’re not all that different from 2019.

What is the best team Mahomes has faced in the Super Bowl?

The regular season was the worst of the four teams, but it would have to be Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. Not only did they beat Mahomes in the Super Bowl, but they were truly terrifying in the final two months of the season and in the playoffs. Brady’s experience playing against Mahomes in the Super Bowl proved invaluable, so until someone beats Kansas City in this game, the Bucs will continue to be the surprise of the postseason.